Movies - The Oscars posts

Zack Wagman Ranks the Best Pictures

1. Casablanca (1943)
2. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
3. Annie Hall (1977)
4. Schindler’s List (1993)
5. Chicago (2002)
6. The Godfather Part II (1974)
7. The Godfather (1972)
8. All About Eve (1950)
9. Amadeus (1984)
10. The Apartment (1960)

11. Forrest Gump (1994)
12. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
13. Braveheart (1995)
14. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
15. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
16. No Country for Old Men (2007)
17. Titanic (1997)
18. Gladiator (2000)
19. The Departed (2006)
20. Oliver! (1968)

21. Gone with the Wind (1939)
22. Rocky (1976)
23. On the Waterfront (1954)
24. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
25. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
26. American Beauty (1999)
27. Ghandi (1982)
28. The Sound of Music (1965)
29. The Sting (1973)
30. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

31. Unforgiven (1992)
32. The French Connection (1971)
33. The Deer Hunter (1978)
34. Patton (1970)
35. It Happened One Night (1934)
36. An American in Paris (1951)
37. West Side Story (1961)
38. The Hurt Locker (2009)
39. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
40. Million Dollar Baby (2004)

41. Platoon (1986)
42. Rebecca (1940)
43. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
44. Rain Man (1988)
45. Terms of Endearment (1983)
46. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
47. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
48. My Fair Lady (1964)
49. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
50. Marty (1955)

51. Ordinary People (1980)
52. Ben-Hur (1959)
53. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
54. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
55. The English Patient (1996)
56. Dances with Wolves (1990)
57. The King’s Speech (2010)
58. The Artist (2011)
59. Out of Africa (1985)
60. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)

61. All the King’s Men (1949)
62. The Lost Weekend (1945)
63. Chariots of Fire (1981)
64. Gigi (1958)
65. From Here to Eternity (1953)
66. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
67. The Last Emperor (1987)
68. Cavalcade (1933)
69. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
70. Grand Hotel (1932)

71. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
72. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
73. Crash (2005)

Haven’t Seen

A Man for All Seasons (1966)
Tom Jones (1963)
Hamlet (1948)
Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
Going My Way (1944)
Mrs. Miniver (1942)
How Green Was My Valley (1941)
The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
Cimarron (1931)
The Broadway Melody (1929)
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
Wings (1927)

Zack's Comment

I wanted to write in “Pocahontas” but they wouldn't let me...

My comment

But if we started there, where would we end? Before or after Ed Wood? Interesting fifth choice, btw. I guess I had the same problem with “Chicago” that I do with most CGI movies: a sense of claustrophobia.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Let me count the ways.

1. The Oscars tend to skew female and gay.
2. There is no greater straight male song about the movies than “We Saw Your Boobs.” It's what every straight guy remembers. Many a gay guy, too. Don't even get me started on gay women.
3. It was presented within a framework—Capt. Kirk returning from the 23rd century to warn host Seth MacFarlane his Oscar show was about to go down in disaster—that softened it. That made it palatable.
4. That framework—Capt. Fucking Kirk—is also a straight-guy framework.
5. Better, that framework gets out in front of the obvious ragging-on-the-Oscar-host that we've been subjected to for the last 15 years.

I was dubious about Seth MacFarlane hosting. I'm not a fan of his shows. I laughed at “Ted” but felt unclean afterwards. And to be honest, a lot of his bits tonight were merely so-so. But “We Saw Your Boobs”? Not just comedically brilliant, but tactically brilliant for the demographic that Oscar needs to bring back to the show. It's the viral moment Oscar needs. See it here.

Seth MacFarlane and the L.A. Gay Men's Chorus singing about boobs.

“Reaction shots” from actresses like Charlize Theron made it twice as funny.

Welcome to Oscar day.

As mentioned in yesterday's post, my friend Vinny crunch the numbers of the first 71 readers (we're now close to 100) who ranked the best picture winners. He explains his methodology here:

I started out sorting results by “Rank” (Ex.: “The Godfather at No. 1; ”Crash“ at No. 77), but soon switched to “Percentile Rank” (0% to 100%, with 100% being best) because it gives a better sense of the popularity of the films. Emily, for example, who only watched 21 movies, ranked “Slumdog Millionare” as her least favorite (#21), putting that film on even footing with a very good film that was ranked #21 by someone who has seen most or all of the best pictures. CM Gardner saw 81 filmes and ranked “Schindler’s List” as #21. Putting it in terms of percentage makes it easier to see how people feel about the movies.

So what are the most-popular best pictures? Here is our top 20:

I'm pleasantly surprised that “Annie Hall,” a favorite of mine, ranks so high. I expected “Lawrence” to be a bit higher. But overall these are the expected best-of-the-best-pictures. The best pictures with status and gravitas.

All the decades are represented: One from the 1920s (an unofficial one, unfortunately), three from the '30s, two from the '40s, three from the '50s, two from the '60s, five from the 1970s, one from the '80s, two from the '90s, and one from the aughts. We'll cut the 2010s some slack. As Karen C. sang, it's only just begun.

The next 20:

I think of “West Side Story” as firt tier but modern moviegoers have generally been tough on musicals. Surprised “The English Patient” is so high. Don't people listen to Elaine Benes? Or Brenda? Ditto “Kramer vs. Kramer.” “Better than 'Hamlet.'”

The next 20:

“An American in Paris” should be higher. I'm also a fan of “The Last Emperor,” if only to look at its beautiful colors. One of these days I'll have to finally see “Ben-Hur,” if only for the Gore Vidal subtext.

Heading to the bottom now.

While I'm surprised moviegoers have been as unimpressed with “Gentleman's Agreement” as I've been, these are definitely the “meh” best pictures. How sad that the Academy has given us so much “meh” under the guise of “best.”

Finally, the dregs:

An argument can be made that unfamiliarity breeds contempt, since the bottom five is littered with the best pictures most of us haven't seen. An easier explanation is the moviegoers who have seen them, and ranked them, are the Oscar watchers, the true cineastes, who are more discriminating in their tastes. They're a tougher crowd. Which makes “Crash”'s bottom-five turnout all the more impressive.

Have you had your say yet? (VOTE HERE.) It's never too late. This is an ongoing project. Because it's not just the Academy judging movies; it's moviegoers judging the Academy.

The movie readers consider the best of the best pictures didn't win best director.

Our friend and neighbor and oft-time reader, Vinny, who has his own blog, The Sayings of Uncle Vinny, recently crunched the numbers on the 71 readers who have ranked Oscar’s best picture winners. This is what he came up with.

Some analysis of votes received in Erik Lundegaard’s “Rank Oscar’s Best Picture Winners.”

First, a note on “ranking” vs “percentile rank.”

I started out sorting results by “Rank” (Ex.: “The Godfather at No. 1; ”Crash“ at No. 77), but soon switched to “Percentile Rank” (0% to 100%, with 100% being best) because it gives a better sense of the popularity of the films. Emily, for example, who only watched 21 movies, ranked “Slumdog Millionare” as her least favorite (#21), putting that film on even footing with a very good film that was ranked #21 by someone who has seen most or all of the best pictures. CM Gardner saw 81 filmes and ranked “Schindler’s List” as #21. Putting it in terms of percentage makes it easier to see how people feel about the movies.

What do we love? What do we hate?
“The Godfather,” no surprise, has the best overall ranking, with an average percentile rank of 84.4% (+/- 16). It was seen by nearly everyone (67 of the 71 readers). It's also the least-hated film on the list. Its lowest score was 30.3%, which might sound bad, but the next least-hated film is “Schindler’s List,” which still hit a low of 24.4% on somebody’s list. From there the “minimum” scores swiftly descend into the low teens, with a full 75 of the 85 films hated by someone: Each of them scored in someone’s bottom 10%.

Here are the nine films that stayed out of the bottom 10% on everyone’s lists:

Only three films failed to crack the top 50% on anyone’s list: “The Broadway Melody” (27% at its highest), “The Great Ziegfeld” (41%) and “Cavalcade” (41%). In the same way that very few movies were hated by nobody, very few movies didn’t have some love showered on them by somebody: 77 of the 85 made it into the top 20% of at least one list.

Here are those unbeloved eight films:

Opinion differed the most on “All Quiet on the Western Front”, where 30 voters gave a spread (standard deviation) of 30 points  around the average score of ~60%. Nobody was confused about “The Broadway Melody,” whose standard deviation was only 7.5% around a score of 5.6%. Ouch!

What have we seen?
The average voter has seen 57 of the 85 films. Two people have only seen 21 while three saw all 85. The least-seen movie was “The Life of Emile Zola,” with only 11 viewings. Two films, “Forrest Gump and “Slumdog Millionaire,” were seen by everyone.

Here are the 10 most-viewed best-picture winners. Well, 14 most-viewed. A big tie at the end there. Second sort on chronology:

And here are the 10 (well, 11) least-viewed best-picture winners:

More to come...

During the day, as many of you know, I'm the editor-in-chief for a national legal publication. Mornings I do this. Recently I combined interests. For the most recent issue in Southern California I interviewed the general counsel and main lawyer (John Quinn and David Quinto, respectively) for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. The Oscars. 

It was fun and informative. I never thought about gatecrashers at the Oscars before--not being a gatecrasher myself and never guarding a gate worth crashing. I never thought that the script for the show has to go through lawyers:

Me: Earlier you mentioned you have to look at the Academy Award show script for approval. What are some examples of things you’ve flagged in the past?

Quinto: One year there was a joke about an actress that suggested she had been having sex out of wedlock with a minor.

Quinn: And we said, “You really can’t do this.”

Quinto: And the response from the producer was, “Look, I heard a joke about Jerry Buss going to Cedar Sinai to wait for his next wife to be born.” And I said, “That’s completely different. The imputation of a lack of chastity to a man is a lot different than the imputation of a lack of chastity to a woman. Plus, what you don’t know,” I said to the producer, “is that the Academy had a dispute this year with that particular actress.” The Academy had threatened a lawsuit. The whole thing was resolved confidentially. But if anyone had a reason to be sore with the Academy at that moment, it was that actress. That was one time I raised a challenge.

Me: Was it listened to?

Quinto: It was listened to. Another time there was a hysterically funny joke about an unnamed baseball player on steroids, and ABC broadcast standards said, “Look, people will tell in a nanosecond that this joke is about Barry Bonds. We’ll be sued. So the joke has to be cut.” And I said, “No, no. I’m a litigator. And as a litigator, I can tell you Barry Bonds will not sue. If he were to sue all his medical records would be open to discovery. He doesn’t want that.” So they kept it in. I thought it got good laughter during rehearsals but they cut it on the basis that it didn’t get enough laughs.

I love all that. I love this sentence: “The imputation of a lack of chastity to a man is a lot different than the imputation of a lack of chastity to a woman.” It's not funny cuz it's true. 

Then there's the discussion of the riders (in effect since 1950) that Oscar winners must sign:

Quinn: When you receive your Oscar, before you take physical possession, you’ll be asked to sign a rider for a first refusal agreement. Basically, before transferring or selling it to anybody, you will offer it to the Academy for one dollar. The Academy is of the view that Oscar statuettes shouldn’t be articles of commerce. They are unique recognitions of achievement, and they shouldn’t be purchased and sold in the marketplace. So from time to time, somebody tries to sell one, and we’re in court seeking injunction against the sale.

Check out the whole Q&A. Digital version is here. A friend who once lived and worked in Hollywood called it “the best behind-the-scenes-at-the-Oscars piece I've read since Edgar Bergen won the Woodie.” Which I think is a compliment.

Edward Copeland Ranks the Best Pictures

1. Casablanca (1943)
2. The Godfather (1972)
3. Annie Hall (1977)
4. All About Eve (1950)
5. The Apartment (1960)
6. It Happened One Night (1934)
7. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
8. On the Waterfront (1954)
9. Amadeus (1984)
10. Schindler’s List (1993)

11. Gone with the Wind (1939)
12. The Godfather Part II (1974)
13. Terms of Endearment (1983)
14. No Country for Old Men (2007)
15. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
16. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
17. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
18. The Last Emperor (1987)
19. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
20. The Sting (1973)

21. The Departed (2006)
22. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
23. West Side Story (1961)
24. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
25. Unforgiven (1992)
26. Grand Hotel (1932)
27. From Here to Eternity (1953)
28. Rebecca (1940)
29. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
30. In the Heat of the Night (1967)

31. Ghandi (1982)
32. My Fair Lady (1964)
33. Marty (1955)
34. American Beauty (1999)
35. Forrest Gump (1994)
36. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
37. Out of Africa (1985)
38. Rocky (1976)
39. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
40. Oliver! (1968)

41. Chicago (2002)
42. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
43. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
44. The Sound of Music (1965)
45. The French Connection (1971)
46. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
47. Gigi (1958)
48. Hamlet (1948)
49. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
50. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)

51. All the King’s Men (1949)
52. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
53. Tom Jones (1963)
54. The English Patient (1996)
55. The Lost Weekend (1945)
56. Ordinary People (1980)
57. Cavalcade (1933)
58. Patton (1970)
59. An American in Paris (1951)
60. The Hurt Locker (2009)

61. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
62. Crash (2005)
63. Going My Way (1944)
64. Wings (1927)
65. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
66. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
67. Chariots of Fire (1981)
68. Rain Man (1988)
69. The Artist (2011)
70. Mrs. Miniver (1942)

71. The King’s Speech (2010)
72. Titanic (1997)
73. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
74. Dances with Wolves (1990)
75. Platoon (1986)
76. Braveheart (1995)
77. Ben-Hur (1959)
78. The Deer Hunter (1978)
79. Gladiator (2000)
80. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)

81. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
82. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
83. Cimarron (1931)
84. The Broadway Melody (1929)

Haven't seen

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)

Edward's comment

I've seen “Sunrise” and it would rank high but I left it out since it doesn't count as a best picture winner.

My comment

Interesting. We may have to amend the interactive feature. Well, we'll have to amend it anyway in a week when we get a new best picture, but Edward is right. “Sunrise” was voted the “Unique and Artistic Picture” in 1929. The “Outstanding Picture” that year, forerunner to best picture, went to “Wings.”  See his fascinating blog post on this and other Oscar subjects.

But considering how well “Sunrise” had held up and “Wings” has not, it makes me wish the Academy had kept the former category. One wonders what it would have looked like through the years, and what artistry it might have inspired in other filmmakers.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Anne Thompson Ranks the Best Pictures

1. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
2. The Apartment (1960)
3. It Happened One Night (1934)
4. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
5. Annie Hall (1977)
6. All About Eve (1950)
7. The Godfather (1972)
8. Gone with the Wind (1939)
9. Casablanca (1943)
10. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)

11. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
12. The Godfather Part II (1974)
13. The Last Emperor (1987)
14. Unforgiven (1992)
15. No Country for Old Men (2007)
16. On the Waterfront (1954)
17. Schindler’s List (1993)
18. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
19. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
20. Amadeus (1984)

21. Platoon (1986)
22. Ben-Hur (1959)
23. Titanic (1997)
24. The Deer Hunter (1978)
25. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
26. An American in Paris (1951)
27. The Sound of Music (1965)
28. Oliver! (1968)
29. The Departed (2006)
30. From Here to Eternity (1953)

31. Patton (1970)
32. Gladiator (2000)
33. Hamlet (1948)
34. Braveheart (1995)
35. The Hurt Locker (2009)
36. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
37. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
38. Tom Jones (1963)
39. The English Patient (1996)
40. Terms of Endearment (1983)

41. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
42. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
43. The King’s Speech (2010)
44. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
45. Gigi (1958)
46. Out of Africa (1985)
47. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
48. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
49. The Lost Weekend (1945)
50. How Green Was My Valley (1941)

51. Rebecca (1940)
52. American Beauty (1999)
53. Forrest Gump (1994)
54. The Artist (2011)
55. Ghandi (1982)
56. The French Connection (1971)
57. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
58. Ordinary People (1980)
59. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
60. Rain Man (1988)

61. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
62. West Side Story (1961)
63. Chariots of Fire (1981)
64. Dances with Wolves (1990)
65. Rocky (1976)
66. The Sting (1973)
67. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
68. Grand Hotel (1932)
69. Chicago (2002)
70. Marty (1955)

71. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
72. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
73. My Fair Lady (1964)
74. Crash (2005)
75. Wings (1927)
76. Going My Way (1944)

Haven’t seen

The Broadway Melody (1929)
Cimarron (1931)
Cavalcade (1933)
The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
Mrs. Miniver (1942)
All the King’s Men (1949)
The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
Around the World in 80 Days (1956)

Anne's comment (on her Twitter feed)

Cinema buffs, I warn you that ranking the Best Picture Oscar winners is a serious time suck.

My comment

Indeed. The biggest issue with these movies is the lack of passion we have, for or against, for most of them. Most are just shrugs. Makes me almost happy for “Crash.” Something to make me shake my first rather than toss up my hands.

Ms. Thompson can be followed, of course, at Thompson on Hollywood

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Thus far, 61 people have sent me their rankings of the Academy's choices for best picture from 1927 to 2011. That's about 55 more people than I thought we were going to get. Two days ago I listed off who's winning in the best best-picture race. This is a post about who's losing. Which is the worst best picture the Academy has chosen?

It's not much of a surprise.

Oddly, save for that one film, there is generally less agreement on which of the Academy's best pictures is worst. Those 61 readers chose 19 different movies in the No. 1 slot but 29 different movies for last place.

Here are the 18 best pictures who received just one vote as our worst best picture:

• The Broadway Melody (1929)
• Cimarron (1931)
• The Great Ziegfield (1936)
• How Green Was My Valley (1941)
• Mrs. Miniver (1942)
• Midnight Cowboy (1969)
• The French Connection (1971)
• Terms of Endearment (1983)
• Amadeus (1984)
• Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
• Unforgiven (1992)
• Titanic (1997)
• Chicago (2002)
• The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
• Million Dollar Baby (2004)
• The Departed (2006)
• Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
• The Hurt Locker (2009)

I know. “Unforgiven”? “Amadeus”? But there 'tis.

Four movies received two votes each:

• Rocky (1976)
• Gandhi (1982)
• Forrest Gump (1994)
• Shakespeare in Love (1998)

Five movies received three votes each:

• Cavalcade (1933)
• The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
• Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
• Dances with Wolves (1990)
• A Beautiful Mind (2001)

There's a surprise, at least to me, for our second-worst movie. With four votes:

• Braveheart (1995)

No surprise at all, as I said, with our choice for the worst best picture the Academy ever chose. In a landslide with 16 votes:

• Crash (2005)

Make sure you get your votes in. We'll be parsing the numbers on a deeper level soon.

GOB Bluth (Kevin) Ranks the Best Pictures

1. The Godfather Part II (1974)
2. The Sound of Music (1965)
3. No Country for Old Men (2007)
4. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
5. Terms of Endearment (1983)
6. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
8. The Godfather (1972)
9. Schindler’s List (1993)
10. Gone with the Wind (1939)

11. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
12. Casablanca (1943)
13. Forrest Gump (1994)
14. Annie Hall (1977)
15. All About Eve (1950)
16. Ordinary People (1980)
17. The Departed (2006)
18. Braveheart (1995)
19. Gladiator (2000)
20. American Beauty (1999)

21. The Hurt Locker (2009)
22. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
23. It Happened One Night (1934)
24. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
25. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
26. The French Connection (1971)
27. Unforgiven (1992)
28. Patton (1970)
29. On the Waterfront (1954)
30. Dances with Wolves (1990)

31. Platoon (1986)
32. Ghandi (1982)
33. The King’s Speech (2010)
34. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
35. The Deer Hunter (1978)
36. Rocky (1976)
37. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
38. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
39. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
40. The Sting (1973)

41. Chicago (2002)
42. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
43. Titanic (1997)
44. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
45. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
46. My Fair Lady (1964)
47. Chariots of Fire (1981)
48. West Side Story (1961)
49. An American in Paris (1951)
50. The Apartment (1960)

51. Rain Man (1988)
52. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
53. Gigi (1958)
54. The Lost Weekend (1945)
55. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
56. Going My Way (1944)
57. From Here to Eternity (1953)
58. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
59. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
60. The English Patient (1996)

61. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
62. Oliver! (1968)
63. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
64. All the King’s Men (1949)
65. Grand Hotel (1932)
66. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
67. Marty (1955)
68. Amadeus (1984)
69. The Artist (2011)
70. Ben-Hur (1959)

71. Out of Africa (1985)
72. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
73. Rebecca (1940)
74. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
75. Hamlet (1948)
76. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
77. Crash (2005)
78. The Last Emperor (1987)
79. Tom Jones (1963)
80. Wings (1927)

81. Cimarron (1931)
82. Cavalcade (1933)
83. The Broadway Melody (1929)
84. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
85. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)

My comment

A third reader listing all 85 movies! And another victory for Coppola and another defeat for the Academy in 1952, which chose “Greatest Show” over “High Noon,” and didn't bother to nominate “Singin' in the Rain.” Agree with the low placement for “Around the World in 80 Days,” which is dullsville, a Cinemascope travellogue; but “Last Emperor” below “Crash”? I'll take the former just for its colors. Its yellows.

In other news, how's the magic show coming?

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

David Murphy Ranks the Best Pictures

1. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
2. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
3. The Godfather Part II (1974)
4. The Godfather (1972)
5. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
6. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
7. Annie Hall (1977)
8. Casablanca (1943)
9. The Apartment (1960)
10. Patton (1970)

11. On the Waterfront (1954)
12. Oliver! (1968)
13. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
14. Schindler’s List (1993)
15. Unforgiven (1992)
16. The Last Emperor (1987)
17. West Side Story (1961)
18. The Deer Hunter (1978)
19. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
20. Rebecca (1940)

21. The French Connection (1971)
22. No Country for Old Men (2007)
23. Platoon (1986)
24. The Departed (2006)
25. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
26. The Hurt Locker (2009)
27. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
28. Rocky (1976)
29. An American in Paris (1951)
30. Amadeus (1984)

31. Ghandi (1982)
32. Out of Africa (1985)
33. From Here to Eternity (1953)
34. Ordinary People (1980)
35. The Sting (1973)
36. Terms of Endearment (1983)
37. All About Eve (1950)
38. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
39. Dances with Wolves (1990)
40. In the Heat of the Night (1967)

41. Tom Jones (1963)
42. Ben-Hur (1959)
43. Marty (1955)
44. Gone with the Wind (1939)
45. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
46. My Fair Lady (1964)
47. The Lost Weekend (1945)
48. All the King’s Men (1949)
49. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
50. How Green Was My Valley (1941)

51. Chariots of Fire (1981)
52. Rain Man (1988)
53. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
54. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
55. Titanic (1997)
56. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
57. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
58. It Happened One Night (1934)
59. Hamlet (1948)
60. The English Patient (1996)

61. Grand Hotel (1932)
62. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
63. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
64. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
65. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
66. The Sound of Music (1965)
67. Braveheart (1995)
68. Wings (1927)
69. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
70. Chicago (2002)

71. Gigi (1958)
72. Gladiator (2000)
73. American Beauty (1999)
74. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
75. Forrest Gump (1994)
76. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
77. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
78. Going My Way (1944)
79. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
80. The Broadway Melody (1929)

81. Cavalcade (1933)
82. Cimarron (1931)
83. Crash (2005)

Haven't seen

The King’s Speech (2010)
The Artist (2011)

David's comment

Realized I hadn't seen the last two, but then I've been so disappointed in who wins the Oscars that it made it really hard to rank the films I just didn't like. I had to find the films I just thought had no business being on the list and start from there, meaning that from about Gone With the Wind down, those films are ones that I just don't care about at all.

Years ago, I decided I'd watch all of the Best Picture nominees, so I had to sit through Cimarron, Cavalcade, and those other early winners that really aren't very good. I still think Lawrence is the best film Hollywood has made, but most of the Top 20 became more of an enjoyability/achievement/theme discussion. Should something as huge as Lawrence go up against Annie Hall? Patton against Waterfront? I split the difference. But what bothers me the most is the way you can tell how much the Weinstein Bros. have influenced the process from the 90's on. My head hurts.

My comment

RE: Harvey Weinstein: Yep. He's pushing “Silver Linings Playbook” this year. We all want an SOB on our side but most of the time Harvey's on the other side. 

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

As of now, 61 people have sent me their rankings of the Academy's choices for best picture from 1927 to 2011. That's about 55 more people than I thought we were going to get.

We'll crunch the numbers in more detail soon, but I thought I'd let you know the tally so far.

For the No. 1 slot? The best best picture? Nineteen different movies got votes.

Five movies got one vote each:

• Gone with the Wind (1939)
• The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
• The Sound of Music (1965)
• The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
• The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)

Two movies got two votes:

• Amadeus (1984)
• No Country for Old Men (2007)

Four movies got three votes:

• The Apartment (1960)
• Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
• Schindler's List (1993)
• American Beauty (1999)

Four movies got four votes each:

• Sunrise: A Tale of Two Humans (1928)
• One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)
• Annie Hall (1977)
• Titanic (1997)

Two movies are tied for third place with five votes:

• Casablanca (1943)
• The Godfather (1972)

In second place, with six votes:

• The Godfather: Part II

And leading the pack with eight votes:

• All About Eve (1950)

“Eve” is surprising. So are the four votes both “Titanic” and “Sunrise” received: the former because I thought it wasn't well-liked; the latter because it's a silent film most of us (including me) haven't seen.

No complaints, by the way, if you haven't voted.

A few of these movies also made the worst list. Which we'll get to next.

Thomas Meier ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
2. Casablanca (1943)
3. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
5. All About Eve (1950)
6. Gone with the Wind (1939)
7. The Hurt Locker (2009)
8. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
9. Annie Hall (1977)
10. It Happened One Night (1934)

11. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
12. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
13. Schindler’s List (1993)
14. The Deer Hunter (1978)
15. West Side Story (1961)
16. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
17. The Godfather Part II (1974)
18. The Godfather (1972)
19. Rebecca (1940)
20. On the Waterfront (1954)

21. Out of Africa (1985)
22. Unforgiven (1992)
23. Platoon (1986)
24. Amadeus (1984)
25. An American in Paris (1951)
26. All the King’s Men (1949)
27. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
28. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
29. The Artist (2011)
30. Midnight Cowboy (1969)

31. Patton (1970)
32. Ordinary People (1980)
33. From Here to Eternity (1953)
34. The English Patient (1996)
35. Terms of Endearment (1983)
36. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
37. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
38. The Departed (2006)
39. The French Connection (1971)
40. No Country for Old Men (2007)

41. American Beauty (1999)
42. Chariots of Fire (1981)
43. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
44. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
45. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
46. The Apartment (1960)
47. Tom Jones (1963)
48. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
49. The Last Emperor (1987)
50. Rocky (1976)

51. The Sting (1973)
52. Gigi (1958)
53. Hamlet (1948)
54. Titanic (1997)
55. Marty (1955)
56. The Sound of Music (1965)
57. Grand Hotel (1932)
58. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
59. Wings (1927)
60. The Lost Weekend (1945)

61. Crash (2005)
62. Ben-Hur (1959)
63. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
64. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
65. My Fair Lady (1964)
66. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
67. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
68. Dances with Wolves (1990)
69. Ghandi (1982)
70. The King’s Speech (2010)

71. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
72. Oliver! (1968)
73. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
74. Gladiator (2000)
75. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
76. Chicago (2002)
77. Forrest Gump (1994)
78. Rain Man (1988)
79. Braveheart (1995)
80. Cimarron (1931)

81. Cavalcade (1933)
82. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
83. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
84. Going My Way (1944)
85. The Broadway Melody (1929)

My comment

Another reader listing all 85 movies. Wow. Takes effort to do the '20s and '30s best pictures. Those don't just turn up every day on Turner Classics.

I like how Thomas' best and worst are like a metaphor for the 1920s: Riding high in 1928, the crash in 1929.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Branimir Djurovic ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. The Godfather (1972)
2. Gone with the Wind (1939)
3. The Godfather Part II (1974)
4. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
5. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
6. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
7. Annie Hall (1977)
8. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
10. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)

11. The Deer Hunter (1978)
12. On the Waterfront (1954)
13. No Country for Old Men (2007)
14. Casablanca (1943)
15. Ben-Hur (1959)
16. The Departed (2006)
17. American Beauty (1999)
18. Unforgiven (1992)
19. Wings (1927)
20. Schindler’s List (1993)

21. Gladiator (2000)
22. It Happened One Night (1934)
23. Amadeus (1984)
24. The Apartment (1960)
25. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
26. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
27. Rocky (1976)
28. From Here to Eternity (1953)
29. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
30. Terms of Endearment (1983)

31. Platoon (1986)
32. Marty (1955)
33. The Last Emperor (1987)
34. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
35. Chicago (2002)
36. The Sting (1973)
37. The French Connection (1971)
38. The English Patient (1996)
39. My Fair Lady (1964)
40. Tom Jones (1963)

41. All About Eve (1950)
42. The Hurt Locker (2009)
43. Forrest Gump (1994)
44. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
45. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
46. An American in Paris (1951)
47. The Sound of Music (1965)
48. Ordinary People (1980)
49. Hamlet (1948)
50. Rain Man (1988)

51. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
52. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
53. Grand Hotel (1932)
54. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
55. Titanic (1997)
56. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
57. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
58. Gigi (1958)
59. Oliver! (1968)
60. Rebecca (1940)

61. The Artist (2011)
62. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
63. Dances with Wolves (1990)
64. West Side Story (1961)
65. Out of Africa (1985)
66. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
67. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
68. The King’s Speech (2010)
69. Crash (2005)
70. Chariots of Fire (1981)

71. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
72. All the King’s Men (1949)
73. Braveheart (1995)
74. Cimarron (1931)
75. The Broadway Melody (1929)
76. Cavalcade (1933)

Haven’t Seen

Ghandi (1982)
Patton (1970)
A Man for All Seasons (1966)
The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
The Lost Weekend (1945)
Going My Way (1944)
Mrs. Miniver (1942)
The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
The Great Ziegfeld (1936)

My comment

I can't believe so many people have seen “Cimarron”! Did anyone see the 1960 remake with Glenn Ford? It actually has a higher IMDb rating (6.3) than the 1931 best-picture winner (6.0).

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Jorge Rodrigues ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. All About Eve (1950)
2. The Apartment (1960)
3. Annie Hall (1977)
4. The Godfather Part II (1974)
5. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
6. Schindler’s List (1993)
7. It Happened One Night (1934)
8. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
9. Rebecca (1940)
10. Casablanca (1943)

11. Gone with the Wind (1939)
12. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
13. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
14. American Beauty (1999)
15. From Here to Eternity (1953)
16. All the King’s Men (1949)
17. The French Connection (1971)
18. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
19. The Godfather (1972)
20. On the Waterfront (1954)

21. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
22. Patton (1970)
23. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
24. No Country for Old Men (2007)
25. The Deer Hunter (1978)
26. The Artist (2011)
27. West Side Story (1961)
28. Wings (1927)
29. The Departed (2006)
30. Gladiator (2000)

31. Ghandi (1982)
32. Amadeus (1984)
33. Unforgiven (1992)
34. Terms of Endearment (1983)
35. Ordinary People (1980)
36. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
37. The Last Emperor (1987)
38. The King’s Speech (2010)
39. Chicago (2002)
40. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

41. The English Patient (1996)
42. The Lost Weekend (1945)
43. Braveheart (1995)
44. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
45. The Hurt Locker (2009)
46. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
47. Crash (2005)
48. The Sound of Music (1965)
49. An American in Paris (1951)
50. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)

51. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
52. Out of Africa (1985)
53. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
54. Hamlet (1948)
55. Platoon (1986)
56. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
57. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
58. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
59. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
60. A Man for All Seasons (1966)

61. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
62. Titanic (1997)
63. Rocky (1976)
64. The Sting (1973)
65. Ben-Hur (1959)
66. Chariots of Fire (1981)
67. Oliver! (1968)
68. Marty (1955)
69. Going My Way (1944)
70. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)

71. Cimarron (1931)
72. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
73. Cavalcade (1933)
74. The Broadway Melody (1929)
75. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
76. Grand Hotel (1932)
77. Dances with Wolves (1990)
78. Gigi (1958)
79. Tom Jones (1963)
80. Rain Man (1988)

81. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
82. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
83. My Fair Lady (1964)
84. Forrest Gump (1994)
85. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)

My comment

I've got nothing but love for “All About Eve.” When I first saw it, maybe 20 years ago, I was dazzled by its wit and wondered where ours had gone.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Steve Schweighofer ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
3. Annie Hall (1977)
4. The Godfather (1972)
5. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
6. From Here to Eternity (1953)
7. All About Eve (1950)
8. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
9. On the Waterfront (1954)
10. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)

11. The Hurt Locker (2009)
12. The Godfather Part II (1974)
13. Schindler’s List (1993)
14. The Last Emperor (1987)
15. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
16. The Deer Hunter (1978)
17. The English Patient (1996)
18. It Happened One Night (1934)
19. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
20. No Country for Old Men (2007)

21. Unforgiven (1992)
22. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
23. Dances with Wolves (1990)
24. American Beauty (1999)
25. The Departed (2006)
26. West Side Story (1961)
27. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
28. The Apartment (1960)
29. Ordinary People (1980)
30. Tom Jones (1963)

31. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
32. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
33. The Sting (1973)
34. The French Connection (1971)
35. Gladiator (2000)
36. Amadeus (1984)
37. Patton (1970)
38. Rebecca (1940)
39. Out of Africa (1985)
40. Terms of Endearment (1983)

41. Platoon (1986)
42. Ben-Hur (1959)
43. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
44. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
45. Hamlet (1948)
46. Chariots of Fire (1981)
47. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
48. Wings (1927)
49. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
50. Casablanca (1943)

51. My Fair Lady (1964)
52. The King’s Speech (2010)
53. Titanic (1997)
54. Gigi (1958)
55. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
56. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
57. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
58. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
59. Ghandi (1982)
60. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

61. The Sound of Music (1965)
62. An American in Paris (1951)
63. Chicago (2002)
64. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
65. Gone with the Wind (1939)
66. All the King’s Men (1949)
67. The Artist (2011)
68. Braveheart (1995)69. The Lost Weekend (1945)
70. Oliver! (1968)

71. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
72. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
73. Marty (1955)
74. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
75. Rain Man (1988)
76. Rocky (1976)
77. Forrest Gump (1994)
78. Cavalcade (1933)
79. Grand Hotel (1932)
80. Going My Way (1944)

81. Cimarron (1931)
82. The Broadway Melody (1929)
83. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
84. Crash (2005)
85. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)

Steve's comment

that was fun

My comment

All of them? Impressive. Glad you enjoyed it. A lot of war at the top.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Joe D. (not that Joe D.) ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
2. The Deer Hunter (1978)
3. On the Waterfront (1954)
4. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
6. No Country for Old Men (2007)
7. The Sound of Music (1965)
8. Terms of Endearment (1983)
9. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
10. Gone with the Wind (1939)

11. The Godfather (1972)
12. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
13. Casablanca (1943)
14. Platoon (1986)
15. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
16. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
17. The Apartment (1960)
18. Annie Hall (1977)
19. From Here to Eternity (1953)
20. All About Eve (1950)

21. The French Connection (1971)
22. The Godfather Part II (1974)
23. My Fair Lady (1964)
24. It Happened One Night (1934)
25. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
26. Rain Man (1988)
27. The Sting (1973)
28. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
29. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
30. An American in Paris (1951)

31. The King’s Speech (2010)
32. West Side Story (1961)
33. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
34. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
35. Oliver! (1968)
36. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
37. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
38. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
39. Patton (1970)
40. Ben-Hur (1959)

41. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
42. Forrest Gump (1994)
43. Chariots of Fire (1981)
44. Out of Africa (1985)
45. Titanic (1997)
46. Gladiator (2000)
47. Dances with Wolves (1990)

My comment

“Cuckoo's Nest” is getting a lot of love. Makes me want to watch it again. “You wanna watch baseball? The World Series? Put up that hand, Chief!”

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Dan Heilman ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
2. The Godfather Part II (1974)
3. No Country for Old Men (2007)
4. Schindler’s List (1993)
5. The Deer Hunter (1978)
6. The Godfather (1972)
7. Annie Hall (1977)
8. Unforgiven (1992)
9. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
10. Rain Man (1988)

11. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
12. The French Connection (1971)
13. The Hurt Locker (2009)
14. Terms of Endearment (1983)
15. Tom Jones (1963)
16. The Artist (2011)
17. Rocky (1976)
18. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
19. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
20. Platoon (1986)

21. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
22. Ordinary People (1980)
23. The King’s Speech (2010)
24. Braveheart (1995)
25. Patton (1970)
26. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
27. My Fair Lady (1964)
28. The Last Emperor (1987)
29. The Sting (1973)
30. Chicago (2002)

31. Ghandi (1982)
32. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
33. Amadeus (1984)
34. The Departed (2006)
35. American Beauty (1999)
36. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
37. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
38. Chariots of Fire (1981)
39. Gladiator (2000)
40. The Sound of Music (1965)

41. Out of Africa (1985)
42. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
43. Dances with Wolves (1990)
44. Oliver! (1968)
45. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
46. Titanic (1997)
47. Forrest Gump (1994)
48. The English Patient (1996)
49. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
50. Crash (2005)

Dan's comment

Listed only those from my lifetime.

My comment

Good plan. And 50 is quite enough. Both ways.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Dback ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
2. Gone with the Wind (1939)
3. All About Eve (1950)
4. Casablanca (1943)
5. West Side Story (1961)
6. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
7. Amadeus (1984)
8. Chicago (2002)
9. The Godfather (1972)
10. The Sound of Music (1965)

11. Gigi (1958)
12. The King’s Speech (2010)
13. Annie Hall (1977)
14. Schindler’s List (1993)
15. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
16. Rebecca (1940)
17. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
18. Ordinary People (1980)
19. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
20. How Green Was My Valley (1941)

21. The Hurt Locker (2009)
22. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
23. The Departed (2006)
24. Grand Hotel (1932)
25. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
26. American Beauty (1999)
27. No Country for Old Men (2007)
28. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
29. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
30. The Artist (2011)

31. Platoon (1986)
32. Oliver! (1968)
33. From Here to Eternity (1953)
34. Gladiator (2000)
35. The English Patient (1996)
36. Forrest Gump (1994)
37. Unforgiven (1992)
38. Terms of Endearment (1983)
39. The Deer Hunter (1978)
40. The Godfather Part II (1974)

41. The French Connection (1971)
42. Patton (1970)
43. It Happened One Night (1934)
44. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
45. My Fair Lady (1964)
46. Tom Jones (1963)
47. The Apartment (1960)
48. Ben-Hur (1959)
49. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
50. An American in Paris (1951)

51. All the King’s Men (1949)
52. Braveheart (1995)
53. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
54. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
55. The Sting (1973)
56. Dances with Wolves (1990)
57. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
58. Rain Man (1988)
59. Titanic (1997)
60. Going My Way (1944)

61. The Last Emperor (1987)
62. Chariots of Fire (1981)
63. Out of Africa (1985)
64. Crash (2005)
65. Ghandi (1982)

Dback's comment

When in doubt, consult Danny Peary's “Alternate Oscars” to get reminders of the many, many gems the Oscars didn't give Best Picture to, or oftentimes didn't even nominate.

My comment

Apparently someone doesn't like the '80s. Wow. Four of the five worst? And “Gandhi” the worst of the worst? Well, it was a bad decade for movies. My main memory of seeing “Ghandi”: everyone walking out the theater with peaceful, beatific expressions on their faces ... until we got into our cars and became our usual asshole selves.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Chris Nelson ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. Annie Hall (1977)
2. Gone with the Wind (1939)
3. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
4. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
5. Schindler’s List (1993)
6. Terms of Endearment (1983)
7. Rebecca (1940)
8. All About Eve (1950)
9. Ordinary People (1980)
10. Casablanca (1943)

11. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
12. Amadeus (1984)
13. Platoon (1986)
14. Titanic (1997)
15. Gladiator (2000)
16. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
17. The Deer Hunter (1978)
18. The Godfather Part II (1974)
19. Unforgiven (1992)
20. The Sting (1973)

21. Grand Hotel (1932)
22. No Country for Old Men (2007)
23. The Hurt Locker (2009)
24. On the Waterfront (1954)
25. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
26. The Sound of Music (1965)
27. The Apartment (1960)
28. Rain Man (1988)
29. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
30. The Last Emperor (1987)

31. Out of Africa (1985)
32. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
33. The King’s Speech (2010)
34. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
35. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
36. The Artist (2011)
37. Dances with Wolves (1990)
38. My Fair Lady (1964)
39. Rocky (1976)
40. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

41. The French Connection (1971)
42. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
43. An American in Paris (1951)
44. The Godfather (1972)
45. The Departed (2006)
46. American Beauty (1999)
47. Forrest Gump (1994)
48. Patton (1970)
49. Chicago (2002)
50. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)

51. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
52. Ghandi (1982)
53. Gigi (1958)
54. The English Patient (1996)
55. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
56. Tom Jones (1963)
57. West Side Story (1961)
58. Ben-Hur (1959)
59. Chariots of Fire (1981)
60. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)

61. The Lost Weekend (1945)
62. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
63. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
64. From Here to Eternity (1953)
65. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
66. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
67. All the King’s Men (1949)
68. Hamlet (1948)
69. Marty (1955)
70. Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)

71. Going My Way (1944)
72. Oliver! (1968)
73. How Green Was My Valley (1941)
74. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
75. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
76. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
77. It Happened One Night (1934)
78. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
79. Wings (1927)
80. Braveheart (1995)

81. Crash (2005)

Haven’t Seen

Cimarron (1931)
Cavalcade (1933)
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1928)
The Broadway Melody (1929)

Chris' comment

“Laughter through tears is my favorite emotion.” DON'T JUDGE ME.

My comment

Way to rock the list and “Annie Hall,” which I love.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Endora Ranks the Oscar winners for best picture

1. The Apartment (1960)
2. Gone with the Wind (1939)
3. Annie Hall (1977)
4. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
5. Terms of Endearment (1983)
6. Amadeus (1984)
7. You Can’t Take it With You (1938)
8. Rebecca (1940)
9. All About Eve (1950)
10. Titanic (1997)

11. Casablanca (1943)
12. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
13. The English Patient (1996)
14. The Godfather Part II (1974)
15. The Godfather (1972)
16. American Beauty (1999)
17. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
18. The Last Emperor (1987)
19. West Side Story (1961)
20. The Departed (2006)

21. The Lost Weekend (1945)
22. My Fair Lady (1964)
23. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
24. An American in Paris (1951)
25. From Here to Eternity (1953)
26. Hamlet (1948)
27. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
28. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
29. It Happened One Night (1934)
30. The Sting (1973)

31. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
32. Tom Jones (1963)
33. Marty (1955)
34. Oliver! (1968)
35. Dances with Wolves (1990)
36. On the Waterfront (1954)
37. Schindler’s List (1993)
38. Unforgiven (1992)
39. Ben-Hur (1959)
40. A Man for All Seasons (1966)

41. Platoon (1986)
42. The Sound of Music (1965)
43. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
44. Ghandi (1982)
45. The French Connection (1971)
46. Out of Africa (1985)
47. Patton (1970)
48. The Deer Hunter (1978)
49. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
50. The Hurt Locker (2009)

51. Chariots of Fire (1981)
52. Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
53. Gigi (1958)
54. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
55. No Country for Old Men (2007)
56. Mutiny of the Bounty (1935)
57. The Artist (2011)
58. Ordinary People (1980)
59. Mrs. Miniver (1942)
60. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)

61. Braveheart (1995)
62. Forrest Gump (1994)
63. Rocky (1976)
64. Gladiator (2000)
65. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
66. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
67. Grand Hotel (1932)
68. Chicago (2002)
69. The King’s Speech (2010)
70. The Broadway Melody (1929)
71. Rain Man (1988)
72. Crash (2005)
73. A Beautiful Mind (2001)

Endora's comment

Thanks for this, Erik.

My comment

Wow, 73 of the 85 best picture winners. That's impressive. I've only seen 70. And that's being generous. (I need to see about 10 of those again to see how they stand up.)

BTW, “Titanic,” your No. 10, is more popular than I thought. As is “Gone with the Wind” (your No. 2). Not to mention “Annie Hall.” But “Annie”'s always been popular with me. Not to mention Annie.

OK, who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Reed Ranks the Oscar Winners for Best Picture

1. The Godfather (1972)
2. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
3. The Godfather Part II (1974)
4. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
5. Annie Hall (1977)
6. Casablanca (1943)
7. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
8. Amadeus (1984)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
10. Rebecca (1940)

11. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
12. On the Waterfront (1954)
13. Rain Man (1988)
14. Schindler’s List (1993)
15. Platoon (1986)
16. All About Eve (1950)
17. Rocky (1976)
18. Patton (1970)
19. The Last Emperor (1987)
20. The Hurt Locker (2009)

21. No Country for Old Men (2007)
22. Braveheart (1995)
23. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
24. Ghandi (1982)
25. The Apartment (1960)
26. Terms of Endearment (1983)
27. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
28. The Artist (2011)
29. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
30. The Deer Hunter (1978)

31. Gone with the Wind (1939)
32. Ordinary People (1980)
33. The Departed (2006)
34. The Sting (1973)
35. The English Patient (1996)
36. The French Connection (1971)
37. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
38. American Beauty (1999)
39. Unforgiven (1992)
40. Forrest Gump (1994)

41. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
42. From Here to Eternity (1953)
43. Marty (1955)
44. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
45. Gladiator (2000)
46. Crash (2005)

Reed's comment

I kept trying to find “Goodfellas,” “Chinatown,” and “The Pianist” in here, but of course they didn't win. “Chinatown,” well, it was a strong year and the movie that won is my #3, so I can't really complain. Still miffed about Art Carney, though. All in all, a better group of films than I had expected. Note - films seen too long ago to remember (“Kramer vs Kramer,” “Sound of Music,” “Ben-Hur,” “Chariots of Fire”) relegated to “unseen.”

Who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Uncle Vinny Ranks the Oscar Winners for Best Picture

1. The Godfather Part II (1974)
2. The Godfather (1972)
3. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
4. Midnight Cowboy (1969)
5. The Deer Hunter (1978)
6. Casablanca (1943)
7. On the Waterfront (1954)
8. Platoon (1986)
9. A Man for All Seasons (1966)
10. Unforgiven (1992)

11. Rebecca (1940)
12. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
13. The Artist (2011)
14. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
15. The Sting (1973)
16. Ghandi (1982)
17. Hamlet (1948)
18. An American in Paris (1951)
19. In the Heat of the Night (1967)
20. All About Eve (1950)

21. No Country for Old Men (2007)
22. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
23. Annie Hall (1977)
24. Grand Hotel (1932)
25. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
26. Amadeus (1984)
27. The Hurt Locker (2009)
28. The French Connection (1971)
29. Rain Man (1988)
30. Schindler’s List (1993)

31. Rocky (1976)
32. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
33. Chariots of Fire (1981)
34. Terms of Endearment (1983)
35. The Lost Weekend (1945)
36. The Apartment (1960)
37. The Sound of Music (1965)
38. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
39. Million Dollar Baby (2004)
40. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

41. Forrest Gump (1994)
42. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
43. My Fair Lady (1964)
44. The English Patient (1996)
45. Gladiator (2000)
46. Braveheart (1995)
47. Dances with Wolves (1990)
48. Out of Africa (1985)
49. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
50. American Beauty (1999)

51. Shakespeare in Love (1998)

Uncle Vinny's comment

I barely remember “Out of Africa.” And, funnily enough...“The Lost Weekend” is a blur.

Who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

Tim's Ranking of the Best Picture Oscar Winners

1. American Beauty (1999)
2. Casablanca (1943)
3. Schindler’s List (1993)
4. Annie Hall (1977)
5. The Hurt Locker (2009)
6. Out of Africa (1985)
7. Rain Man (1988)
8. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
9. Gone with the Wind (1939)
10. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

11. Unforgiven (1992)
12. The Sting (1973)
13. All About Eve (1950)
14. Ben-Hur (1959)
15. Chariots of Fire (1981)
16. The Sound of Music (1965)
17. Ordinary People (1980)
18. Dances with Wolves (1990)
19. Titanic (1997)
20. No Country for Old Men (2007)

21. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
22. Platoon (1986)
23. The Godfather (1972)
24. The Artist (2011)
25. The Last Emperor (1987)
26. Forrest Gump (1994)
27. A Beautiful Mind (2001)
28. The English Patient (1996)
29. Shakespeare in Love (1998)
30. Braveheart (1995)

31. Marty (1955)
32. The Apartment (1960)
33. Crash (2005)

Tim's comment

Holy moly.

Who's next?

Rank Oscar's best pictures from 1927 to today.

It began more than a year ago when I ranked the 2011 best picture nominees by IMDb score.

Then I wrote a post in which I ranked all of Oscar's best picture winners, from 1927 to 2011, by IMDb rating.

Then I wondered: How would I rank them all? So I did.

Now I'm wondering how you would rank them.

I went to wallopin' webmaster Tim with a question: Can we create a simple way for readers to rank the 85 best picture winners? We need to make sure all of the movies are on the screen at the same time. (That's tough doing.) We need a way to eliminate all of the unseen movies. (Even I haven't seen them all.) Then there should be a way for readers to share their list either here or abroad. (Because that's the fun part.)

Tim went to work and ... Here it is! An interactive page in which YOU rank every Oscar best-picture winner from 1927 to today.

Feel free to play around with it. Fee free to send me your list with any comments or suggestions.

What you may find? If you're a movie lover? There will be 10-20 movies that you know will be at the top of your list, and 5-10 movies that you know will be at the bottom of your list; then there will be a whole lot of meh in the middle. The Academy is good at this: declaring meh the best.

What I've realized looking at this list again? The most recent years have been a drag. There's not much since the mid-1990s that make my top 20. I think just “No Country for Old Men.” Most of the others elicit a shrug. Maybe this will change with time.

But enough from me. Have at. Enjoy. Argue.

Last February I posted the IMDb ratings for the nine best-picture nominees from the 2011 movie season, professed perplexity at “The Help”'s relatively high rating (8.0, or third-best among nominees), as well as “The Tree of Life”'s relatively low one (7.1, or second-to-last among nominees), and promised to revisit in a year or so to see how IMDb's raters, whoever they were, had sorted it out.

Longtime reader, and inveterate IMDb watcher, Reed, warned me, in the comments field, that “Tree of Life” would plummet. “It is not a movie that will be appreciated outside of a theater setting,” he wrote, adding parenthetically, “Yes, I know almost all movies' IMDb ratings decline over time because the demographics shift, but I imagine that casual viewers will be particularly unkind to 'Tree of Life'...”

He was right. But they were even more unkind to another of the best picture nominees:

2012 ratings taken during February 2012; 2013 ratings taken the morning of January 5, 2013

“Hugo”? Really, people?

Scorsese's kid drops 5, “The Artist,” “The Descendants,” and “The Tree of Life” all drop 3, “Midnight in Paris,” “Moneyball” and “War Horse” all drop 1, “The Help” stays the course, while “Extremely Loud,” lambasted by the critics a year ago, rises an astonishing 4 points.

The best movie of the bunch is now tied for last; one of the worst is now second and holding.

The way of the world. It's not cream that rises. Help.

“The Help” doesn't change; “Extremely Loud” gets closer; “Hugo” barely hangs on.

Michael Morell, the acting director of the CIA, took the odd step of sending an internal memo to his agents externally, via the CIA's website, to talk about the inaccuracies in Kathryn Bigelow's film “Zero Dark Thirty.”

Some of the stuff he talks about is of the “Who gives a shit?” variety. Hundreds of agents are reduced to a dozen? That's always done. That's dramatic license. Because hundreds aren't a story; one is.

But Morell's key point is his second point:

Second, the film creates the strong impression that the enhanced interrogation techniques that were part of our former detention and interrogation program were the key to finding Bin Ladin. That impression is false. As we have said before, the truth is that multiple streams of intelligence led CIA analysts to conclude that Bin Ladin was hiding in Abbottabad. Some came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques, but there were many other sources as well. And, importantly, whether enhanced interrogation techniques were the only timely and effective way to obtain information from those detainees, as the film suggests, is a matter of debate that cannot and never will be definitively resolved.

Except he's not making much of a point, is he? He says it's false that enhanced interrogation techniques were part of the program that led to Bin Ladin. Then he says, “Some [of that intelligence] came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques, but there were many other sources as well.”

Wait, what? I'd heard no info that led to OBL came from tortured detainees.

I mean, how is Morell not contradicting himself in this graf? Is he saying that the intel gathered through enhanced interrogation came from a source other than the CIA? Because if that's the case, that, for me, falls within the realm of dramatic license, and “Zero Dark Thirty” is off the hook.

Again, the issue for me with this film is the misrepresentation of the efficacy of torture. Period. But if that efficacy is not misrepresented, if in fact some of our OBL intelligence came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques,  and if ZDT doesn't overplay its hand in this regard, then I'm interested again.

Morell, in attempting to edify, actually muddies the waters. Makes me think of a fictional CIA director from a 1970s movie: “You miss that kind of action, sir?” “I miss that kind of clarity.”

There are two controversies about “Zero Dark Thirty” but only one gets written about. That's the “does it or doesn't it?” controversy: Does the film suggest that the “enhanced interrogation methods” of the Bush administration, i.e., torture, led to the intel that led to Osama bin Laden? Many critics have said yes. Owen Gleiberman said yes, almost enthusiastically, on December 5:

Part of the power of Zero Dark Thirty is that it looks with disturbing clarity at the ''enhanced interrogation techniques'' that were used after 9/11, and it says, in no uncertain terms: They worked. This is a bin Laden thriller that Dick Cheney and Barack Obama could love. At the same time, the film spins its fearless — and potentially controversial — stance toward the issue of how the U.S. treats its prisoners into a heady international detective thriller.

David Edelstein said yes less enthusiastically on December 2:

It also borders on the politically and morally reprehensible. By showing these excellent results—and by silencing the cries of the innocents held at Abu Ghraib, Bagram, and other 'black sites'—it makes a case for the efficacy of torture.

Glenn Greenwald, safely on the other side of the Atlantic, compiles a list.

I first became aware of the controversy last week via Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker and was astounded.... by how long it took the controversy to come to light. That's the second controversy. By this point, “Zero Dark Thirty” had already won how many year-end awards? From how many organizations and critics groups? New York Film Critics Circle, Boston critics, D.C. critics, National Board of Review. And it took Dexter Filkins and Frank Bruni in The New York Times to bring the controversy to light?

What the fuck were the critics thinking?

Maybe they were thinking what I was thinking when I saw the trailer last month. It begins with hints of the torture to come, and some part of me thought, “Wait. The movie isn't suggesting we got good intel from this torture, is it?” But that thought, that blip, was ignored because the rest of the movie looked fucking good. It looked serious and important, and—I'll say it—2012 has been a lousy year for movies. We needed something good to come along, something serious and important to make us excited about the movies again and wash away the bad taste left by the dreck of summer: all those big and bombastic and flailing and flopping pictures. “Zero Dark Thirty” looked IT. It looked like THE ONE.

Now even Washington, D.C. is getting involved. Senators Diane Feinstein, John McCain and Carl Levin, after a screening of ZDT, sent a letter to Sony Pictures chairman Michael Lynton condemning the film:

We believe the film is grossly inaccurate and misleading in its suggestion that torture resulted in information that led to the location of Usama bin Laden...

The use of torture in the fight against terrorism did severe damage to America’s values and standing that cannot be justified or expunged. It remains a stain on our national conscience. We cannot afford to go back to these dark times, and with the release of “Zero Dark Thirty,” the filmmakers and your production studio are perpetuating the myth that torture is effective. You have a social and moral obligation to get the facts right.

The response from Bigelow and Boal thus far? Flailing and flopping. They talk about how the movie is not a documentary. They bring up the irrelevant fact that the U.S. government did torture people—as if that were the controversy. Here's Bigelow a few days ago:

The point was to immerse the audience in this landscape, not to pretend to debate policy. Was it difficult to shoot? Yes. Do I wish [torture] was not part of that history? Yes, but it was.

Here's Boal:

The movie has been, and probably will continue to be, put in political boxes. Before we even wrote it, it was (branded) an Obama campaign commercial, which was preposterous. And now it's pro-torture, which is preposterous... Everything we did has been misinterpreted, and continues to be...

I'm not saying the film is a documentary of everything that happened, but it's being misread... Look at it as a movie and not a potential launching pad for a political statement.

That's some weak tea.

How could they not know? That they were stepping into one of the most heated debates of our time? And how could Bigelow, who wishes that torture had not been part of our history, misrepresent the efficacy of that very torture?

Now the critics are splashing us with their own weak tea. Jeff Wells, over at Hollywood Elsewhere, who is insanely anti-“Lincoln” in the best-picture Oscar race, and thus insanely pro-“Zero Dark Thirty,” makes the following argument in the wake of the Senators' letter:

Obviously Al Qaeda allies were tortured during the Bush admistration so what's the problem? How do Diane Feinstein, Carl Levin and John McCain know for a fact that no good information resulted from torture? They believe this because they've been told this, but how do they really know?

His first sentence is again not the issue. The rest of his argument confuses things even more. His goal is obfuscation here. The tactic of lawyers and pundits when the facts aren't on their side. Because it really comes down to this:

• Does “Zero Dark Thirty” show that intel gathered via torture led us to Osama bin Laden?

If the answer to that is “Yes,” they've misrepresented the facts as we know them. Their only possible saving grace is that they know other facts, more so than Senators McCain, Feinstein and Levin of the U.S. Armed Services Committee. If so, then they should own up. They should let us drink that strong tea. But if they drew the line themselves between torture and the intel that led to Osama bin Laden, a mea culpa of the most massive kind is in order.

Does she or doesn't she? Some say she still does.

Most of us are busy enough trying to keep track of (and see) this year's Oscar contenders, whatever they might be (only 23 days, 11, 58 minutes as of this writing, according to the clock on the Film Experience site), but Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere is all “Been there, done that” with 2012 movies. He's moved onto 2013 movies and the 2014 Oscars, listing the top 16 likeliest of probable picks, from John Wells' “August: Osage County” (No. 1) to Baz Luhrman's delayed “The Great Gatsby” (No. 16).

Based upon storyline and past performance, I'd put “12 Years a Slave” (“A man living in New York during the mid-1800s is kidnapped and sold into slavery in the deep south”) by Steve McQueen (“Shame,” “Hunger”) higher than #15. Ditto “Foxcatcher” by Bennett Miller (“Moneyball,” “Capote,” “The Cruise”) at #9. (#9.... #9...)

BTW: The cast in these two movies alone? Benedict Cumberbatch, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Paul Dano, Paul Giamatti, Michael Kenneth Williams, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Alfre Woodard. Sorry. That's just the cast for “12 Years a Slave.”

The past is always bleak. The future is always bright.

Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave.” The past is bleak, the future is bright.

“When I arrived in L.A. [in 1974, to receive an honorary Academy Award for his lifelong contribution to film and film preservation], I thought that the Oscar was like our Legion of Honor. But it's much more important than that because everyone and his brother gets one of those eventually. An Oscar is truly a serious matter. I didn't realize how much it meant. It's comparable to being chosen as a master craftsman by one's fellows in the time of the guilds.”

--Henri Langlois, in the documentary "Henri Langlois: The Phantom of the  Cinémathèque” (2004). Langlois, who is considered the father of film preservation, the auteur theory, and the Nouvelle Vague, took film more seriously than the Academy. He took the Academy more seriously than the Academy.

“The fact that the Oscar telecast is a bust, that it is doomed—almost designed—to be a bust, and that the varying degrees of bustness are all that separates one year from the next, should neither surprise nor even dismay us, because the Academy Awards are like teen-age sex. It’s all about the fizzing buildup, and the self-persuading aftermath: the occurrence itself, nowadays, is nothing but fumble and flub...”

-- Anthony Lane, “The Oscars: Man or Muppet?” on The New Yorker site, in what is easily the best post-Oscar commentary. Most critics fulminate. They snipe. Michael Cieply and Brooks Barnes of The New York Times write about the Academy's doomed ratings ... even though, they admit, the ratings were up 3.7 percent. The Hollywood Reporter slams host Billy Crystal, as it slams all hosts, even though he was funny and got off several of the evening's best lines, particularly: “Nothing takes the sting out of these tough economic times like watching a bunch of millionaires giving golden statues to each other.” Julia Turner over at Slate.com actually criticized the way Penelope Cruz looked. (“The look is blah ... stupid princess gown.”) Lane keeps the proper distance. He expects little and is amused when he gets less. He unleashes bon mots with a shrug. All other critics should read and learn.

“Ryan Seacrest,” Lane writes, “whose very name resembles a brand of luxury yacht, so smooth are the waves on which he sails through life...” Choppier waters here thanks (and yes, thanks) to Sacha Baron Cohen.

At the start of the evening I said I wanted one thing: pleasant surprises. I didn't get any and won my Oscar pool—or at least split it four ways: with Mr. B, Mr. P and Jayne. If Viola had won I would've won it outright. But how can you not love Meryl? And her speech? In 2005, I wrote an MSNBC piece on which performers were overdue for an Oscar, and brought up her name even then:

An argument could be made that the actress most-due is Meryl Streep. Yes, she’s won, twice in fact (lead and supporting), but not since 1982. Since then she’s been nominated nine times (eight lead, one supporting). Time to get her out of her seat already.

Even so, this was the wrong year. Should've been Viola's year.

So what were the surprises--pleasant or otherwise? That “The Artist” won? Dujardin? Davis? “Midnight in Paris”? “The Descendants”? That Billy Crystal was funny? It seems we have the Academy figured out. Too bad.

I guess the big surprise for us was that Uncle Vinny left early. What the hell, dude? I kept looking for you to share something and found you gone.

The line of the night, at our party, came from David, who, after Penelope Cruz said something innocuous like “And the winner is...,” but in her dynamite accent, and of course looking like she does, David, after a pause, asked, “Can we rewind that?”

Amen.

Our 2012 Oscar party.

Mr. B raises faux-Oscar high after tying with three others for first place. But he gave a helluva speech.

I saw this video clip on Slate.com today of Woody Allen's only Oscar visit in 2002. It was great seeing it again. I realized what a terrific person he was, and how much fun it was just listening him. And I thought of that old joke. Y'know, this... this guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, “Doc, uh, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken.” And the doctor says, “Well, why don't you turn him in?” The guy says, “I would, but I need the eggs.” Well, I guess that's pretty much now how I feel about my relationship with Woody. It's totally irrational, and crazy, and absurd. But I guess I keep going through it because ... I need the eggs.

• The most interesting piece I've read this Oscar season is the least-surprising. Three reporters at The LA Times, John Horn, Nicole Sperling and Doug Smith, finally break the cloak on anonymity that has always surrounded the Academy and give us exact numbers ... and it's pretty much as we always suspected: Oscar is old, white and male. Specifically, he's 94% white, 77% male, and with an average age of 62. I once compared the Academy to Gordon Jump on “WKRP in Cincinnati” and it's not far off. The surprise? I always assumed the Academy was made up of past nominees and winners but 64% of its members, including TV stars Erik Estrada and Gavin McLeod, have never been nominated. So how did they get in? We don't really get that from the Times. We don't get a sense of who gets invited and why. Apparently women and non-whites are still vast minorities in terms of even new membership. At the same time, I don't think this kind of rash action is doing anyone any good:

“People of color are always peripheral,” said veteran African American character actor Bernie Casey (“Under Siege”), who said he recently quit the academy because he was disenchanted with its racial makeup.

• The audio of my recent turn talking Oscars on “Karl Show! (Starring Jason)” is up. Love the “Citizen Kane” gif they gave me. What am I trying to get the masses to applaud for there? “Young Adult”? “Tree of Life”? CRITIC LUNDEGAARD FOUND IN LOVE NEST WITH “FILM.”
• “Kids Re-enact the Oscar Nominees” is a cheap laugh but I laughed out loud for the “Moneyball” version.
• More kids: Guyism.com's Ryan Jones interviews kids on the upcoming Oscar ceremonies. LOL line: “What's the favorite movie you've seen over the last year?” “'Dolphin Tale.'” “'Dolphin Tale'? How does that compare with 'The Tree of Life'?”
• Nathaniel Rogers temporarily leaves his Film Experience site to pen an interesting piece, over at Slate, in which he breaks down who and what gets thanked, and when, during Oscar acceptance speeches. Basics: God beats Oprah but loses to Meryl Streep.
• Slate also has a piece, by Elbert Ventura, about how sneakily profound “The Descendants” is, but he doesn't say anything I didn't in my review last November. Oh, except that the movie is as existential and profound as “The Tree of Life.” Because it's not.
• Via the eagle-eyed Uncle Vinny: Dave Weigel breaks down “The Iron Lady.” Cleavage and all. 
• A Harvard freshman, Ben Zauzmer, has created a mathematical formula for predicting the Oscars, although—caveat!—he says it's not foolproof. His method would've predicted correctly 19 of 20 in 2009 but only 16 of 20 in 2010. Still, he offers his 2011 predictions. Let's hope he's wrong about Meryl. (So odd to be rooting against Meryl.)
• Meanwhile, FilmJerk.com's numbers cruncher makes his own predictions. And yes, Virginia, there are differences. Jerk goes Clooney over DuJardin, Davis over Streep, Bejo over Davis. Oddly, among his formulations, “hotness” isn't a factor. Which, with the average Academy member, it totally is. I'd stick with the Harvard kid.
• The Seattle Times' Moria Macdonald makes her predictions (and lets her wishes be known) in the eight major categories. For what it's worth, she agrees with young Ben on everything but, well, Meryl.
• Via Le Monde, Césars 2012: le triomphe de “The Artist.” Peut-etre a Hollywood aussi? Question: Why do they use the English version of the title (“The Artist”) in a French newspaper? Do they call it “The Artist” in France? Not “l'Artist”? FWIW: Dujardin lost out on meilleur acteur to Omar Sy, but Bejo won meilleure actrice. So Gordon Jump is alive and well and living in France.
• David Denby has a nice homage to silent film in the latest New Yorker. To which everyone should be subscribing.
• Then Denby goes through the looking glass with fellow critic Richard Brody to talk about silent films via a silent film. Fun.
• Oh, don't forget this: My Oscars page.
• Finally, in 2005, I wrote a piece for MSNBC on who was most due for an Oscar. Among my choices? Martin Scorsese, Jeff Bridges, and Glenn Close. Done, done, and... probably not.

No live-blogging tonight kids. Oscar hosting. But I'm sure I'll have an opinion or two when the night is through...

Oui, vous est tres jolie. Je t'aime, vraiment. Mais... meilleure actrice?

Meh.

That's what surprised me most. Not that I loved or hated most of the best picture winners since 1927 but that I didn't have much feeling one way or another. “The Departed”? “The English Patient”? “Rain Man”? “The Deer Hunter”? “In the Heat of the Night”? “From Here to Eternity”? “Lost Weekend”? Did I even see “Lost Weekend”? What do I really remember about it? Maybe better put that in the NOT SEEN group. Only fair.

In his discussion yesterday on the New Yorker site, critic Richard Brody said the switch from five best picture nominees to 10, or 9, or what have you, was a good thing, because it inspired passion among moviegoers. Which is something the Academy is generally good at tamping down. These films are sometimes an example of that.

I certainly have passion for my top 10. I have a different kind of passion for my bottom five. But the middle took a lot of rejiggering and soul-searching. How to rank this movie? By my feeling upon first watching it? By my feelings now? By how much I'd like to watch it again? By how deep it is, or how well it tells its story, or exemplifies its genre?

I wound up choosing an awkward mix of all of these criteria and it was still tough. I kept going back and forth. Am I putting this one low because so many people like it? Am I putting this one high because so many people don't? It's hard to separate your feelings from society's but you give it a go. In the end I thought “Would I rather watch 'Lord of the Rings: Return of the King' right now or 'Driving Miss Daisy'?” I may be the only person this side of Bruce Beresford who would answer the latter. Probably not him, either.

Revelation: I like big and boldly drawn: “My Fair Lady” and “Gone with the Wind” and “Patton” and “Titanic.” Yes, “Titanic.” A friend of mine, a songwriter, always runs across contemporaries who disparage middle-of-the-road work, but he says that's what he strives for. He thinks of it like a mountain, where the middle is the highest point, and the hardest to attain. Some of these big movies do that.

Lesser revelation: I dig the '70s. It was the glory period of American filmmaking, easy riders and raging bulls and all that. It was also the period I first became aware of the Oscars. I was coming of age then. The Academy seemed important then. Maybe it was. Maybe it honored more important movies. And even when it didn't, as in '76, choosing “Rocky” over “All the President's Men,” “Network” and “Taxi Driver,” well, its choice was still a good movie. “Rocky” is another boldly drawn story but finely defined along the edges. It has patience and grit. It tells its tale really, really well. It's not its fault it had so many awful children.

Sometimes the titles get in the way. They're so storied, I think, “Shouldn't this be higher?” Then I think about what the film is, what it lacks, and go, “Meh.”

But, really, you can make your argument for No.s 25 through 60 and I'll probably buy it. To do this properly, I'd have to watch all of these movies again but who wants to do that? They're only best pictures.

Final note: I've also included a column on the greatest disparities between my opinion and the mass opinion on IMDb. No surprise: The movies I love and they didn't tend to be musicals. There's a +63 variance for “An American in Paris,” +41 for “West Side Story,” and +35 for “My Fair Lady.” The next one is “Titanic,” which feels like a musical. On the other side of the equation, movies they loved and I didn't, we have the recent and the blockbusty: “Forrest Gump” at -57, “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” at -52, and “Braveheart” at -50. We agreed on exactly two: “The Godfather” and “Cuckoo's Nest.”

Enjoy. Your results will vary.

I realized too late that yesterday's post about IMDb rankings of every best picture winner since 1927 should've included the entire list as sorted by ranking. Here it is, with my notes:

 ........

TOMORROW: My choices....

My recent post about the IMDb ratings of current best picture nominees, along with the usual slew of “worst best-pictures” articles, or revisionist or do-over Oscar picks, made me wonder how every best picture winner has fared with IMDb users—or at least those IMDb users who bother to rate films.

Which are the highest-rated best picture winners? Which are the lowest-rated? Which pictures get votes and which are ignored?

No big surprise: Recent best picture winners get rated more often, way more often, than older best picture winners. In the past 20 years, there are only three films that haven't been rated by more than 100,000 users: “Chicago,” “Shakespeare in Love” and “The English Patient.” Meanwhile, of the first 45 best picture winners—i.e., from 1927 to 1971—only two films, “Casablanca” and “Gone with the Wind,” have generated more than 100,000 votes. Most people can't be bothered with what's old. Those who can, like me, can't be bothered to rate them on IMDb.

The films with the lowest vote totals also tend to have the lowest ratings. That was a bit of a surprise to me. I thought that the few fans of, say, “Cavalcade” (1933), would skew its results up, but it's simply logic. Lesser movies just don't get watched, and thus don't get rated, particularly if they're older. Among best picture winners, “Calvacade,” from 1933, has the fewest votes: 1,426.

A note to IMDb: Isn't it time to increase the decimal? Ten of the 84 films are tied with an 8.4 rating. Nine are tied with an 8.0 rating. That's too many ties. Give us that hundredth already.

Now on with the countdown.

Here are the highest-ranked best picture winners on IMDb:

Again, it skews recent. Of the top 11, more than half were released in the last 20 years. Only two—“Lawrence” and “Casablanca”—were released prior to 1970.

Here are the bottom 10:

It skews old. We get the forgotten BPs of the 1930s, the bloated spectacles of the 1950s, plus a few recent head-scratchers. But “An American in Paris” at 7.2? Really? IMDb's voters don't like musicals, do they? The great musicals of the early sixties, “My Fair Lady” (7.9), “The Sound of Music” (7.9) and “West Side Story” (7.7) all get less love than the abyssmal “Crash,” which is somehow still perched at a lofty 8.0.

Something is even more apparent when you look at each decade's highest- and lowest-ranked films:

It's the dude angle, the fanboy angle. The highest-ranked films above are testosterone-heavy. From the 1950s on, in fact, it's tough to find a leading woman in the mix. Diane Keaton in “The Godfather” maybe? Mozart's wife in “Amadeus”? Cate Blanchett in “LOTR: ROTK”? On the lowest-ranked side, it's all female-centered stories (“Chicago”) or empathetic male stories (“Kramer vs. Kramer”), or both (“Shakespeare in Love”). It's hardly a scoop that IMDb's users are young and male but it is sad. The Academy is historically dismissive of female-centered stories. IMDb's voters turn out to be worse.

As I was compiling the above, I noticed that the highest-ranked of the highest-ranked movies was “The Godfather,” while the highest-ranked of the lowest-ranked movies was “Kramer vs. Kramer,” both from the 1970s. It led me to break down the ratings by decade:

The 1970s, with its great slew of American films, is rightly in first place. The 1950s is weighed down by a few of the Academy's tepid choices (“Greatest Show,” “Around the World”), as is the 1980s (“Ordinary People,” “Chariots of Fire,” “Driving Miss Daisy”). The '90s and 2000s are obviously too high but what are you gonna do? They'll come down.

For completeists, here's the entire list:

• The Artist: 8.4
• Hugo: 8.2
• The Help: 8.0
• Midnight in Paris: 7.8
• Moneyball: 7.7
• The Descendants: 7.7
• War Horse: 7.3
• The Tree of Life: 7.1
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close: 6.4

I'm a bit surprised that “The Help” is that high but I shouldn't be. I'm a bit surprised that “The Tree of Life” is that low but I shouldn't be. I should revisit in a year and see what's changed. Someone remind me. Vinny? Reed?

“The Help”: It's funny cuz it's untrue.

“What's even more embarassing about this film [Midnight in Paris] is that one of the more important historical figures that Gil interacts with is Gertrude Stein. For those of you who aren't familiar with her, Stein is one of the most famous writers, and lesbians, in American history. And Woody Allen has the nerve to not have her speak to another female character in the entire film?”

--Anita Sarkeesian, in her video, The 2012 Oscars and the Bechdel Test, below, at the 3:30 mark. (But keep reading beyond the video.)

“Miss Stein was very big but not tall and was heavily built like a peasant woman. She had beautiful eyes and a strong German-Jewish face that also could have been Friulano and she reminded me of a northern Italian peasant woman with her clothes, her mobile face and her lovely, thick, alive immigrant hair which she wore put up in the same way she had probably worn it in college. She talked all the time and at first it was about people and places.

”Her companion [Alice B. Toklas] had a very pleasant voice, was small, very dark, with her hair cut like Joan of Arc in the Boutet de Monvel illustrations and had a very hooked nose. She was working on a piece of needlepoint when we first met them and she worked on this and saw to the food and drink and talked to my wife. She made one conversation and listened to two and often interrupted the one she was not making. Afterwards she explained to me that she always talked to the wives. The wives, my wife and I felt, were tolerated...

“'I said to my wife, ”You know, Gertrude is nice, anyway.“ ...

”'I never hear her,' my wife said. 'I'm a wife. It's her friend that talks to me.'“

--Ernest Hemingway, ”A Moveable Feast"

“...rarer has it been clearer to me that 'the Academy' is not a monolithic individual entity we conveniently paint it as for the purpose of analysis, but a hive of conflicting individual opinions and personalities. The new voting structure for the Best Picture race is a case in point. We know each of these nine nominees received at least 5% of the number-one votes cast, suggesting a diverse range of committed camps. The people responsible for The Tree of Life being on the list are not the same people who put War Horse there, who in turn are different from the sneaky contingent who came through for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

”There's evidence of contrasting impulses within individual branches, too. Are the actors who rallied for Demián Bichir the same ones who are high on Rooney Mara? Are there Academy screenwriters who are equally jazzed about Bridesmaids and A Separation? I'm sure there are some — speaking as the person whose best-of-2011 list found room for Margaret and Immortals — but I'm sure you'd find plenty more who are befuddled by at least one of those nominations. Get angry with the Academy if you like, but wonder first what — or who — you're even getting angry with.“

-- Guy Lodge, ”Stuck in the middle with you: Thoughts on the Oscar nominations,“ on the ”In Contention" site. Which is now, what, HitFix? Too bad.

I'm finally getting together my invites for the Oscar party on Sunday, Feb. 26 and got distracted on the oscar.go.com site. Is that an official site of the Academy? It looks to be. There's oscars.org as well, which is definitely official, but I assume the organization runs both.

Anyway I was distracted by a “Celebrate the Movies” photo gallery that is also advertising the Oscar broadcast this year and the Oscars and the movies in general. One photos shows Tom Cruise in “Top Gun” with the line WE SHOWED YOU HOW TO BE A MAVERICK; another shows Audrey Hepburn in “Breakfast at Tiffany's” with the line WE SHOWED YOU HOW TO HAVE STYLE. Etc.

It's halfway to annoying. But it went the entire way with the following slide:

YOU showed us how to make a change? How about Spike Lee did? Or not even. He made a good, incendiary movie, which, in a weak year, didn't get nominated for best picture or director or cinematographer. It got ignored by the Academy—infamously—in favor of past pleasantries. Yet here you are using it to promote yourself.

WE SHOWED YOU HOW TO FUDGE HISTORY.

WE SHOWED YOU HOW TO USE THE ABUSED.

WE SHOWED YOU HOW TO TAKE CREDIT FOR WHAT YOU ONCE IGNORED.

All are more accurate.

A few months ago I was on the Portland radio show Karl Show! (Starring Jason) to talk about movies and reviewing movies. Tomorrow night, Friday night at 8 pm (PST), I'll be back on to talk about this year's Oscars: the good, the bad and “War Horse.”

You can listen live here.

The podcast will be available on the Karl Show! (Starring Jason) website.

In case you were wondering how the best picture nominees look as ranked by Rotten Tomatoes ...

By Top Critics:

The Artist: 100%

Moneyball: 97%

Midnight in Paris: 95%

Hugo: 92%

The Descendants: 90%

The Tree of Life: 88%

War Horse: 82%

The Help: 68%

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: 51%

By all critics:

The Artist: 97%

Hugo: 94%

Moneyball: 94%

Midnight in Paris: 93%

The Descendants: 90%

The Tree of Life: 84%

War Horse: 76%

The Help:76%

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: 46%

What surprised me? Not the less-than-spectacular numbers for “Tree of Life,” which I expected, since I know some critics didn't like it or didn't have patience for it or it wasn't what they want in a movie.

I'm a bit surprised that “The Descendants” wasn't higher. Fifth of the nine nominees? Behind “Midnight in Paris”?

I'm even more surprised that “War Horse” didn't tank. Top critics gave it 82%. Maybe we need to redefine “top.”

But I'm most surprised that “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” wound up with the kind of low numbers I thought “War Horse” would have. “Extremely” is considered rotten in both rankings. Has any best picture nominee ever had such low RT ratings? Even “The Blind Side,” which also starred Sandra Bullock, went 62%/66%.

**

After a quick search, I discovered “The Reader” went 56%/62% in 2008. So there is rotten precendent, just not as rotten. The connection, of course, is that both films were directed by Stephen Daldry.

I find it interesting that the movie with the most Academy Award nominations, “Hugo” with 11, is directed by an American but set in France, while the movie with the second-most nominations, “The Artist” with 10, is directed by a Frenchman but set in America. Artistic tips of the hat, as it were.

The nine nominees are also Wilsonian, as in August, in that almost every decade from the 20th century is represented:

• 1900s: Hugo
• 1910s: War Horse
• 1920s: The Artist, Midnight in Paris
• 1930s: The Artist, Hugo
• 1940s:
• 1950s: The Tree of Life
• 1960s: The Help
• 1970s:
• 1980s:
• 1990s:
• 2000s: Moneyball, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• Contemporary: The Descendants

Too bad we couldn't have added this one:

• 1970s: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I can't think of other 2011 movies—decent ones—that would fill out the other decades. I'm not talking brief flashbacks, such as in “Moneyball,” with a young Billy Beane in the 1980s. I'm talking something longer and deeper (and uncut).

Another question: Which of the above films is least nostalgic about the period it portrays? “Midnight in Paris” cautions against nostalgia but still gives us rip-roaring times with Hemingway and Fitzgerald and Marion Cotillard. “The Artist” is a very relevant movie, I would argue, but its raison d'etre is a form of nostalgia. “War Horse”? It's nostalgic for John Ford movies. “The Help”? Paints pretty pictures of a brutal period; of the great American tyranny.

No, the above film least nostalgic about its time period is “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” Probably why it didn't get nom'ed.

Who could forget all those crazy times in Mississippi, 1964?

Last night, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) awarded its “Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film” Award to Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.”

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the DGA is the best single predictor of the Academy Award for best picture. Here are the DGA's award winners since 1990. The DGA feature-film achievements that didn't go on to win best picture are highlighted in bold:

• 2011: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist        
• 2010: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
• 2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• 2008: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
• 2007: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
• 2006: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
• 2005: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
• 2004: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
• 2003: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• 2002: Rob Marshall, Chicago
• 2001: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
• 2000: Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
• 1999: Sam Mendes, American Beauty
• 1998: Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
• 1997: James Cameron, Titanic
• 1996: Anthony Minghella, The English Patient
• 1995: Ron Howard, Apollo 13
• 1994: Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump
• 1993: Steven Spielberg, Schindler's List
• 1992: Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven
• 1991: Jonathan Demme, The Silence of the Lambs
• 1990: Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves

Seventeen-for-21. If we predicted that well, Vegas wouldn't let us in.

Each discrepancy has an explanation. Blame homophobia for 2005, xenophobia for 2000, Harvey Weinstein's hefty push for “Shakespeare in Love” for 1998, and who knows what in 1995. Opiephobia? Howard didn't even get nom'ed by the Academy for “Apollo 13,” which is much better film than the eventual winner, Mel Gibson's “Braveheart.”

I suppose the question is: How Francophobic is the Academy? Un peu? And for those who are, well, Hazanavicius has Harvey Weinstein and his heft on his side. To me that means done, over and out. La course est terminee. Felicitations, M. Hazanavicius.

First Bejo, now the DGA.

I took these screenshots July 4th on the “In Contention” site, which is devoted to all things Oscar. I wanted to see how far-ranging their predictions were. Who was considered a front-runner back then? Who had the buzz? And whose buzz proved short-lived?.

Here:

From the photos alone you get a sense of the evanescence of buzz. “J. Edgar” as leading best picture contender? Spielberg touted for his direction of “War Horse”? Where does this buzz come from? Publicists? Why aren't we shooing this shit away? More: Why do we need to talk about anything we haven't seen? What's the point in it? Not to get too Yoda here but all of our lives we look away to the future, to the horizon. Never our minds on where we are. Hmm? What we are doing.

This is IC's tally:

• Best Picture: 7 of 9. They missed “The Help” and “Moneyball.” They thought “Ides of March,” “J. Edgar” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.”
• Best Directing: 3 of 5: Picking Eastwood and Spielberg, missing Malick and Allen.
• Best Actor: 3 of 5. Missing Bachir and Pitt. Was there really a time when Jeremy Irvine was touted as best actor?
• Best Actress: 2 of 5. No Viola, Rooney or Michelle. Back when people still thought highly of “Martha Marcy May Marlene.” Well, some people.
• Best Supporting Actor: 2 of 5: Missed Hilly, Nolte and Von Sydow for Broadbent, Brooks and P.S. Hoffman
• Best Supporting Actress: 0 for 5. Fun! Including two performances (Tomei and Watts) that barely left a mark.

In the acting categories alone, they were 7 for 20.

This is not to slam IC, which has good writing, even if the site itself has gone over to Hitfix; it's not to slam the work of the artists who didn't make the cut, since we can argue about that forever. (Charlize, honey, you wuz robbed!) It's just a reminder, I guess. I like thinking about what we once thought about. That's my Yoda problem. All my life I've looked back into the past. There's less money in it but greater clarity.

It's been a while since I voiced disagreement with the New York Times' resident movie-industry writers Michael Cieply and Brooks Barnes but they had a line in their latest piece about the Academy Award nominations (“Nine Films Vie for Best Picture”) that stopped me cold:

“In a seeming disconnect, only one best actress nominee, Viola Davis of 'The Help,' appeared in a film nominated for best picture.”

Really? A seeming disconnect? The Academy is male dominated and tends to nominate movies that are male dominated. Best pictures have historically featured leading men, not leading women. Don't they know this? I wrote the following for MSNBC seven years ago:

In the first 15 years of the Academy (roughly 1928-43), the woman who won best actress appeared in that year’s best picture three times: Luise Rainier for “The Great Ziegfield” in 1936, Vivien Leigh for “Gone with the Wind” in 1939, and Greer Garson for “Mrs. Miniver” in 1942. ...

Did women’s stories suddenly seem silly and unimportant after D-Day and the Battle of the Bulge? Perhaps. Because the next time a best actress appeared in a best picture wasn’t until 1977: Diane Keaton for “Annie Hall.” During that same period, 15 best actors starred in best pictures, and to this day, best pictures tend to be testosterone-filled enterprises: “Braveheart” and “Gladiator” and the like. It’s the Academy’s way of telling women their stories don’t matter. I’m surprised there’s not a bigger outcry over this.

True, I'm discussing winners and Cieply and Barnes are discussing nominees; and true, in the previous two years, with best picture nominees swollen to 10, more of the films of best actress nominees wound up among the best picture nominees: three in 2010 (“Black Swan,” “The Kids Are Alright,” and “Winter's Bone”) and three in 2009 (“The Blind Side,” “An Education” and “Precious”).

But these are historic anomalies. The previous year, only one best actress nominee, Kate Winslet, had her film, “The Reader,” among the best picture nominees. In 2007? One again: Ellen Page for “Juno.” 2006? Helen Mirren in “The Queen.” 2005? Zilch. Nada. Bupkis.

It is a seeming disconnect that women's films are ignored in this manner. But Cieply and Barnes should know that it's been a seeming disconnect since around World War II.

Meryl Streep may look shocked, but she knows, as Michael Cieply and Brooks Barnes apparently don't, that the films of best actress nominees tend not to garner nominations for best picture. Of the 14 films for which she's been nominated best actress, only one* has been nominated best picture.

*Answer in the comments field below.

The expansion of the best picture nominations from five to 10 in 2009 was all about box office. (See this chart.) Academy tastes and popular tastes no longer meshed, or studios stopped distributing quality films, or quality films no longer attempted popular appeal, or quality films only appealed to oldsters who waited for the DVD to become available on Netflix. It can get pretty tricky, in a chicken-and-egg kind of way, when you attempt to break down why the system broke down.

But it did. While the nominees for best picture historically included a top-5 film, and often the No. 1 movie of the year (see: 1967 to 1977), by the mid-2000s the nominees couldn't even crack the top 10. Between 2004 and 2008, the highest-grossing best picture nominee in terms of box office ranked as follows: 22nd, 22nd, 15th, 15th and 16th.

So in 2009 the Academy decided to double the best-picture nominees to get popular films such as “The Dark Knight” involved. How has this worked?

Well, its first year, the whole thing was probably unncessary, since “Avatar,” the highest-grossing movie of the year, the decade, and all-time in terms of both dometic and international box office, would've been nom'ed anyway. But “Avatar” did get nom'ed. As did “Up,” the No. 5 film, and “The Blind Side,” at No. 8. Three films in the top 10! That hadn't happened since 1997.

In 2010, the No. 1 movie, “Toy Story 3,” was again nominated best picture. As was No. 6, “Inception,” and No. 13, “True Grit.” Still working.

This year? A different story.

The No. 1 box-office hit? The last “Harry Potter,” which wasn't among the nominees. The remainder of the top 5 is strewn with the latest iterations, or regurgitations, of pop-cultural junk food: “Transformers,” “Twilight,” “Hangover” and “Pirates of the Caribbean.”

Pixar couldn't even help since their 2011 offering, “Cars 2,” while a box-office hit at No. 8, was never a critical hit and never an Academy consideration.

This is where this year's nominees—nine with the new rules—wound up in terms of domestic box office:

I spend a lot of time looking at box office but even I was shocked by the numbers. Less “The Help” being the highest-ranking best-picture nominee at No. 13 than the rest of it. “Moneyball” is really the second-highest-grossing film among the nominees? “The Artist” is really only at $12 mil?

“Justin Bieber: Never Say Never” grossed more than all but two of these films?

In other words, a few years after irrevocably altering historic Academy parameters for the sake of popularity and TV ratings, we're right back where we started from: no No. 1s, no top 10s. It's like a reverse of Al Pacino's famous line in “Godfather III”: Just when the Academy thinks it's brought us together, we're pulled apart.

Arguing with the Academy over its nominations is like arguing with your grandparents over politics. Even if they could hear you, there's not much point in it. You'll never agree.

Or will you? I'm curious how my 2011 Oscar nominations compared with the Academy's:

• BEST PICTURE: Four of five. I would've assumed “Tree of Life” not making the cut rather than “Young Adult.”
• BEST DIRECTOR: Three of five. I'm fine with their choices. It's a tough category. As best picture used to be before the New Happiness. 
• BEST ACTOR: Three of five. I'll take my five.
• BEST ACTRESS: Two of five. Grandma likes biopics more than I do. And she thought that Charlize Theron was just mean.
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: One of five, the likely winner, Christopher Plummer.
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: One-half of five, Jessica Chastain, but for a different movie. I went “Taking Shelter,” they went “The Help.” I trended young, as AMPAS used to in this category.
• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Three of five. But I'm fine with their choices. Well, I would've gone Diablo over Woody, but you know how much Grandpa likes Woody. Plus that Diablo was just mean. And didn't she used to be a stripper or something?
• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Four of five. They went “Ides of March,” I went “Captain America.” I stand by the good Captain.

So more agreement than not in the non-acting categories (14 out of 20), and more not than agreement in the acting categories (6 1/2 out of 20). Particular disagreement with supporting and with women.

Overall, though, in a squeaker, I find I do agree with the Academy more than not: 20 1/2 out of 40.

“Charlize was just mean in that movie.”

I'm not a fan of the snubbed meme but “Young Adult” was snubbed, man, massively snubbed. It was the best picture of 2011 that didn't get ... what ... anything? Not even Charlize Theron? Not even Charlize Theron. No Diablo Cody, no Jason Reitman. Nothing. Please see it anyway. It was just one of the best movies of the year.

And if you'd asked me which was more likely: that “War Horse” wouldn't get nominated best picture or “The Adventures of Tin Tin” wouldn't get nominated best animated feature, I would have bet $1,000 on the former.

“The Artist” has 10 noms. Does that lead? No, “Hugo” with 11. “The Descendants” has five noms. It feels like it's “The Artist”'s to lose right now. 

Other surprises? Pleasantly, both Terrence Malick (for best director) and “The Tree of Life” (for best picture) were nominated. Albert Brooks was not. No Leo DiCaprio or Michael Shannon, either. No...

Here, let's take it category by category:

BEST PICTURE

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

What percentage of the vote did you need again to make this list? And by how much did “War Horse” and “Extremely Loud” squeak over? And by how much did “Young Adult” not? “War Horse,” Jesus. It's a horrible lie of a film. But its main character was brave ... was brave ... was brave ...

BEST DIRECTOR

• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Terence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

No Bennett Miller. A bit of a surprise. No David Fincher, who got the DGA nod. Malick instead. Good for the Academy. All the nominated directors' films were nominated best film, but it still feels like a two-film race: “The Artist” vs. “The Descendants.”

BEST ACTOR

• Demián Bichir, “A Better Life”
• George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Demian! Bro. Now we have to all see that movie when it arrives. Oh, it came and went? Last July? Apologies. Lo siento. Put it in your queue, Netflixers. Quickly, quickly. No Leo nod for “J. Edgar,” no Fassbender for “Shame,” no Michael Shannon for “Take Shelter.” Somewhere, Vinny cries. 

BEST ACTRESS

• Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
• Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

Did I happen to mention yet that my choice for best actress of the year, the whole fucking year, Charlize Theron in “Young Adult,” not even nom'ed? She should've gained 40 pounds for the role. Admittedly, thankfully, it's a stacked category this year, but two of the frontrunners, Streep and Williams, didn't do much for me. Plus I'm tired of these statuettes going to biopic (rhymes with myopic) portrayals. Well, clears the field for me. Makes rooting interests easier. Go Viola!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
• Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
• Max Von Sydow, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

I guess the narrative will be that Max von Sydow, a surprise, nudged out Albert Brooks, a perceived front-runner. But in a certain sense I still don't know what Jonah Hill is doing on this list. Or Kenny B for that matter. Or, hell, Nolte. When did that push begin? Can we see Oscar ad budgets for each film?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
• Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
• Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Where's Shailene Woodley? Where's Evan Rachel Wood? I'd take off Bejo (much as I enjoy seeing her on the red carpet) or McCarthy (much as I enjoy a comedic role being honored; but let's face it, she won it for the heart-to-heart at the end).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
• J.C. Chandor, “Margin Call”
• Asghar Farhari, “A Separation”
• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

Farhari is a pleasant surprise here. I like the “Margin Call” shoutout. Deserved. Diablo, you wuz robbed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, “The Ides of March”
• John Logan, “Hugo”
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
• Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, “Moneyball”

I still would've given it to “Captain America” over “Ides of March.” I'm serious. You try to adapt a 70-year-old comic book, see how far you get.

Enough for now. Thoughts?

Seriously, Academy?

BEST PICTURE

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• Young Adult

And the winner should be...

Terrence Malick's “The Tree of Life”

Because: The dinosaur, which bothers so many, is exactly the point. The movie focuses on a boy and a family in Waco, TX, in the 1950s but it includes the beginning and end of time. It enfolds religion with science. In doing so, it attempts to answer the question that Job, and all of us, ask of God: Why do you allow such suffering? In the Old Testament, God answered, “Where were you when I laid the foundation of the Earth?” Terrence Malick takes us there. No other movie has this scope or this ambition. Few ever have. This is what movies were meant to do.
Chance: In hell. Probably won't even get nom'ed.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Terence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
• Bennett Miller, “Moneyball”
• Nicolas Winding Refn, “Drive”
• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

And the winner should be...

Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

Because: For the reasons above. For the patterns of life. For the intermingling of science and religion. For reminding us that nature is what we are while grace is what we aspire to be.
Chance: Fat.

BEST ACTOR

• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
• Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
• Michael Shannon, “Take Shelter”

And the winner should be....

Brad Pitt

Because: He showed his age, his lighter side, his rage, his humor. Because he was interested and interesting.
Chance: Pretty good. Some say Pitt, some say Clooney. They could be the tomato-tomatah of this year's Oscar race. 

BEST ACTRESS

• Juliette Binoche, “Certified Copy”
• Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” *
• Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”
• Mia Wasikovska, “Jane Eyre”

And the winner should be....

Charlize Theron

Because: She created one of the most original characters to come out of Hollywood in years—and she did it flawlessly. Because she made us care about an awful, awful person. Because while her character's personality was an outlier, her situation was representative and sympathetic. Because she made us laugh. Because in the end she was just like us: she didn't change.
Chance: The buzz, stronger this summer, is currently elsewhere. But make no mistake: this is a stacked best actress roster. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Paul Bettany, “Margin Call”
• Michael Lonsdale, “Of Gods and Men”
• Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”
• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
• Jeffrey Wright, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

And the winner should be....

Christopher Plummer

Because: He embodied a character, who, in the few years between living a lie and dying of cancer, lived. Because the joy in him was passed on to us. Because that's a rare gift.
Chance: He's the frontrunner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jessica Chastain, “Take Shelter”
• Mélusine Mayance, “Sarah's Key”
• Judi Dench, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Evan Rachel Wood, “The Ides of March”
• Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

And the winner should be....

Shailene Woodley

Because: She dipped beneath the surface of the pool and broke down and broke our hearts.
Chance: Not good. But a nom would be nice.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• J.C. Chandor, “Margin Call”
• Diablo Cody, “Young Adult”
• Étienne Comar and Xavier Beauvois, “Of Gods and Men”
• Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
• Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

And the winner should be....

Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

Because: “The nuns taught us there were two ways through life: the way of nature and the way of grace. You have to choose which one you'll follow. ... Grace doesn't try to please itself. Accepts being slighted, forgotten, disliked. Accepts insults and injuries. ... Nature only wants to please itself. Gets others to please it, too. Likes to lord it over them. To have its own way. It finds reasons to be unhappy when all the world is shining around it. And love is smiling through all things.” 
Chance: I think it'll have to accept being slighted, forgotten, disliked.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• John Logan, “Hugo”
• Christopher Markus, Stephen McFeely, “Captain America”
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
• Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, “Moneyball”

And the winner should be....

Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, “Moneyball”

Because: The movie is based upon a true story about a group of misfit ballplayers who get together and do well, and against all odds ... win nothing. They don't win the World Series. They don't go to the World Series. They're always stopped. So the big question for anyone watching with any knowledge of baseball history is ... how do they end it? They ended it with a man who was bloody from being first through the wall. They ended it with a guy who hit a homerun and didn't know it. They ended with the hero caught in a moment of indecision and tension but possible epiphany and release. They ended it in a place that allowed us to carry something beautiful and fragile from the theater.
Chance: Good. Although that would be two years in a row for Sorkin. “The Descendants,” I assume, is the big competition here.

Your results may, and should, vary...

After the Oscar noms come out tomorrow morning we'll have the usual endless talk of how the Academy snubbed this or that actor or director. Not a fan. The very nature of the conversation is snubbing someone, since it implies that one of the nominees isn't good enough to have been nom'ed in the first place. If the conversationalists owned up to it ... But they never do. They talk as if the Academy left off this or that front-runner when it had an infinite number of open slots.

Here are my choices in the eight main Oscar categories. As always, this is preference not prognostication. I guess I snubbed Meryl Streep and George Clooney, didn't I, for the likes of Mia Wasikovska and Michael Fassbender. I also chose Brad Pitt twice. What's the opposite of snubbing? Hugging? Spooning? I found the two screenplay categories the toughest to complete, because Original Screenplay had too many possibilities and Adapted too few. I got to four quickly but the fifth required work.

Feel free to post your rooting interests, or anyone I've missed, below. I'll post my winners later today.

* Review of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” posted later this week. I have yet to see “Albert Nobbs.”

Two days before the Golden Globes, Slate published an article by Tom Shone, the author of Blockbuster: How Hollywood Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Summer, on how the Golden Globes isn't cheap cousin to the Oscars; it's better than the Oscars.

The piece is classic Slate, i.e., contrarian, but Shone's argumentation is sloppy, like GG acceptance speeches, and for a second I thought about responding. Then I read the comments field and realized several readers had done the work for for me.

A reader named Josh B. writes:

Mr. Shone isn't comparing apples with apples. It's easier to reward the right people and films when you give out twice as many awards. For instance, in 1988, the Globes didn't choose Tom Hanks in Big over Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man (which is what the author implies in his list at the end of the article). Rather, both Hanks and Hoffman won acting Globes that year, but in different categories.

Then Ben F. writes:

You also conveniently forgot a few [Golden Globes' picks]:

• “Avatar” and James Cameron beat “The Hurt Locker” and Kathryn Bigelow 
• “Evita” and Madonna beat “Fargo” and Frances McDormand 
• “Scent of a Woman” beat “Unforgiven” and “Howards End”
  

I think both groups make poor choices. Oscars tend to be self-serious while the Globes tend to be star worshiping.

Makes one almost not-wish for the death of comments fields.

Shone also ignored such recent, weak, GG best-drama winners as “Babel” in 2006 (over “The Departed”), and “Atonement” in 2007 (over “No Country for Old Men”). I might add that Shone's opening, in which he imagines a world in which the Golden Globes has the authority of the Oscars, is similar to the opening of a 2005 article I wrote on the National Society of Film Critics. I'm not suggesting plagiarism, of course. I'm merely suggesting that even contrarian articles might not be very original.

wo years ago, I entitled a blog post about the three New York Times film critics’ annual Oscar picks “The Disagreeables,” since its critics, A.O. Scott, Mahnola Dargis and Stephen Holden, agreed on only four nominees out of 45 slots. Three were “Hurt Locker”-related and they all wound up with Oscars: best pic, best director, best original screenplay. The fourth was Colin Firth, best actor, for “A Single Man.” Missed by a year.

A week ago Sunday, The Disagreeables returned in an equally disagreeable mood. Of the now-40 slots (five each for eight categories: best picture, director, actor, actress, plus the two supporting and screenplay options), they agree on ... three and a half. Each has both Christopher Hampton (“A Dangerous Method”) and Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin (“Moneyball”) nominated for best adapted screenplay. Each has David Cronenberg (“A Dangerous Method”) nominated for best director. The half is Brad Pitt for best actor, whom they all choose but for different roles. Scott goes “Tree of Life,” Dargis and Holden “Moneyball.”

Since agreement is boring this is how you want it. My disagreement with the Times has to do with placement. They line them up in order of status within the Times—Scott, Dargis, Holden—when I’d put Holden between the other two because he seems the middle-ground between Scott’s adamant populism (“Warrior” and “Bridesmaids” as best-picture nominees) and Dargis’ equally adamant minimalism (“Mysteries of Lisbon” and “Poetry” as best-picture nominees).

Even Scott’s attempts at being outre seem conventional compared to Dargis. For best supporting actor, he chooses, among others, Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”), John C. Reilly (“Cedar Rapids”), and Andy Serkis (“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”). Dargis counters with another “Cedar Rapids” player, Isiah Whitlock Jr. (Clay Davis from “The Wire”), adds the little-mentioned but quite good Jean-Pierre Darroussin from “Le Havre,” and tops it off with Cosmo the dog from “Beginners.” This last is either a bit of a cheat or payback for the fudged 1927 Oscar vote.

Two categories I’d like the Times to add for next year? Best documentary and best foreign-language film. New York gets so much more of both of these than the rest of the country. It would actually be nice to see their picks there.

I’ll do my list soon. I'll have to. The real nominees are only a few weeks away.

I can haz Oscar nom?

The nominees from the 64th Annual Directors Guild of America Awards are out:

• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
• David Fincher, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Why do the DGAs matter? Because, for those who still care about this kind of thing, the DGAs are the most accurate, single predictor of which film will win the Academy Award for best picture. In the 63 awards seasons we've had since the DGAs began in 1948, the DGA has accurately predicted the Oscar winner for best picture 50 times. In this century it's happened every year except 2000, when the DGA chose Ang Lee (“Crouching Tiger”) and the Academy went for “Gladiator”; and 2005, when the DGA again chose Ang Lee, who won the Oscar for best director, but whose picture, “Brokeback Mountain,” lost to somethingorother.

A little history among the nominees.

This is Woody Allen's fifth DGA nomination. Previously, he'd been nominated for “Annie Hall,” “Manhattan,” “Hannah and Her Sisters,” and “Crimes and Misdemeanors.” He won for “Annie Hall.” Same as with the Academy.

Fincher has been nom'ed twice (“Benjamin Button” and “The Social Network”) and never won. It's the first nom for Hazanavicius. Payne was nom'ed for “Sideways” in 2004.

And it's the eighth feature-film nomination for Scorsese: “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull,” “Goodfellas,” “The Age of Innocence,” “Gangs of New York,” “The Aviator” and “The Departed.” He won for “The Departed.” Little-commented-upon: the DGAs screwed him over for “Raging Bull” and “Goodfellas” first.

Question 1: Why is there such synchronicity between the DGAs and the Academy? Does the DGA try to predict the Oscar winner? Or does the Academy, which is dominated by actors, follow the DGA's lead, as actors follow the lead of a director during filming? Or is it something else entirely?

Question 2: Has any picture won the Oscar for best picture without its director being nom'ed for a DGA? I.e., are we now down to five best-picture candidates?

Here's a quick check:

1. In 1989, when Oliver Stone won the DGA for “Born on the 4th of July,” Bruce Beresford, whose “Driving Miss Daisy” was the eventual Oscar winner, was NOT among the DGA nominees.
2. In 1968, when Anthony Harvey won the DGA for “The Lion in Winter,” Carol Reed, whose “Oliver!” was the eventual Oscar winner, was NOT among the DGA nominees.
3. In 1967, when Mike Nichols won the DGA for “The Graduate,” Norman Jewison, whose “In the Heat of the Night” was the eventual Oscar winner, was NOT among the DGA nominees. (He was a “finalist” who didn't make the cut to “nominee.”)
4. In 1952, when John Ford won the DGA for “The Quiet Man,” Cecille B. DeMille, whose “The Greatest Show on Earth” was the eventual Oscar winner, was NOT among the DGA quarter-finalists. (He was among the DGA's 18 “nominees,” but that's a bridge too far.)
5. In 1948, when Joseph Mankiewicz won the DGA for “A Letter to Three Wives,” Laurence Olivier, whose “Hamlet” was the eventual Oscar winner, was NOT among the DGA quarter-finalists.

So there is precedence but not much: five times in 63 years. And never since 1989.

Thoughts? Does it feel like we're down to “The Descendants” vs. “The Artist”? If so, whom would you choose?

And who's missing from among the noms? Some say Spielberg and “War Horse.” Others say Bennett Miller and “Moneyball.” I say where's Terrence Malick?

Last Sunday I was almost moved to tears by the trailer for the film “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” starring Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and Thomas Horn, which will be released on Christmas Day 2011.

Today, I read this column by Jeff Wells, in which various best picture contenders are examined and dismissed (“The Descendants,” “Moneyball”), and which concludes with these paragraphs:

...when Gabe The Playlist begrudgingly said there “wasn't a dry eye in the house” toward the end of a recent NY screening of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, I felt a little button-push sensation in my chest. I thinking it might be the one....maybe. He said he's not a Stephen Daldry or a Sandra Bullock fan and that he didn't care for the Asperger's kid, but he still recognized or acknowledged that it delivers the emotional payoff that it set out to deliver. ... So it's looking like Extremely Loud might have an edge at this stage.

Then I looked at my review for last year's best picture winner, “The King's Speech.” It begins with this admission before I dismissed the film as a minor film:

When I first saw a trailer for “The King's Speech,“ I was almost moved to tears.

So it looks like ”Extremely Loud" is on the right track anyway. Its trailer nearly moved me to tears. Now let's see if the film is the right kind of sappy for the Academy.

“That year [1927], Rin Tin Tin was designated the most popular performer in the United States, and his four films—A Dog of the Regiment, Jaws of Steel, Tracked by the Police and Hills of Kentucky—were box office hits as well as critical successes. The Academy Awards were presented for the first time, and Rinty received the most votes for Best Actor. But members of the Academy, anxious to establish the new awards as serious and important, decided that giving an Oscar to a dog did not serve that end, so the votes were recalculated and the award was diverted to Emil Jannings, for his performances in both The Way of the Flesh and The Last Command.”

--Susan Orlean, “Rin Tin Tin: The Life and the Legend,” pp. 88-89. Orlean will appear next Friday, October 28, at SIFF Uptown for a reading, a Q&A, and a showing of the Rin Tin Tin silent film “Clash of the Wolves.”

The original Rin Tin Tin in “Hills of Kentucky” (1927).

A dream last night. Freudians, start your engines.

I was in a conclave of tables off to the side at an awards ceremony—backstage yet onstage—and was about to announce one of the awards. Was Ben Stiller there somewhere? I wasn't thinking anything of the task, figured it would be a breeze, but when I stood up I had problems with the flap of my fly—it was turning out, exposing the metal teeth—and trying to fix it I wound up pulling out my tucked-in shirt, even as I was being pulled toward the stage. Introductory music was playing and I was walking with Patricia and my name was announced in grand fashion. It was the Academy Awards and I was walking onstage with my white dress shirt untucked and slightly wrinkled. Would that look cool? Wouldn't that look...disrespectful? Worse, I couldn't remember what award I was presenting. What was it again? And where were my glasses? I couldn't read the cue cards! I whispered all this to Patricia in a panic and she calmed me and said we would get through it, but the walk to the lectern seemed to take so long that  by the time we arrived we felt we were behind. The music stopped and everyone waited and I glanced hurriedly over the lectern, which was electronic, flashing different kinds of data, including something in the upper right corner about ... was that the award?

“And now, the award for ... ” I stumbled. “...sexiest...”

“... new male lead,” Patricia finished.

There was silence. It seemed wrong, what I'd said, but I clutched onto the hope that it was right. Then a film clip started, an older woman being interviewed about a tragic event, possibly the Holocaust, and it was over and we were backstage and I'd been wrong, and I was trying to both justify myself and sort through the enormity of just how wrong I'd been.

A few weeks ago, in the April 11 edition of The New Yorker, there was a good article by Tad Friend on the comedic actress, and Washington state native, Anna Faris, which didn't seem to get much attention in the blogosphere—other than a curt dismissal on Hollywood Elsewhere—because it was only available in the digital and print editions. It wasn't online. It wasn't free.

But the best part of the article wasn't the stuff on Faris so much as the stuff on women, comedy and movies in general. The writer lists off the almighty Laws of Date Night that keep women and comedy separate and unequal:

• Men rule. (I.e., they pick the movie.)
• Men are simple. Don't confuse them. (Unnamed producer: “Men just don't understand the nuances of female dynamics.”)
• If a woman is the star, it better be a romantic comedy. (Tad Friend: “Unless she is Angelina Jolie.”)
• Women don't have to be funny. (Preston Sturges: “A pretty girl is better than an ugly one.”)
• Also, women aren't funny. (David Zucker: “Maybe women have a built-in dignity...”)
• Really, they're not. (Kennan Ivory Wayans: “If Will Ferrell was a girl, and she's got a belly and a hairy back, she's not running down the street naked.”)

I gained newfound (firstfound?) respect for Seth Rogen, Feris' co-star in “Observe and Report,” who observed (and reported), “If 'Pineapple Express' had been about two girls, they wouldn't have made it. And if I were a woman I wouldn't have a career.”

Friend contrasts female comedians in movies with female comedians on TV, where they're doing just fine, thank you, but the discussion reminded me, yet again, how unliberal Hollywood is in practice. Liberalism means feminism, or includes feminism, and yet what's feminist about 99 percent of the product coming out of Hollywood? Nothing. The opposite. Hollywood isn't even conservative on the matter. It's Confucian.

“Who would want to break into it? It’s like a bank that’s already been robbed.”

—Randy Newman, backstage at the Oscars, after a college reporter asked him about breaking into the music business. (As recounted in Michael Cieply and Brookes Barnes' article, “Younger Audience Still Eludes the Oscars,” in The New York Times.)

Best Picture:

When I first saw a trailer for “The King Speech” I was almost moved to tears. I thought: “Colin Firth seems amazing. Geoffrey Rush looks like he’s having a ball.” Then I thought, “Except it feels like I’ve seen the entire movie now but for the last 10 minutes. And I can guess those.” (Psst: The speech goes well.)

And?

And Colin Firth is amazing, Geoffrey Rush seems like he’s having a ball, and the entirety of the movie is in the trailer except for the last 10 minutes. And you can guess those. ...

“The King’s Speech” is a smart movie that’s fun to watch. I expect Oscar and BAFTA nominations for Firth, Rush, and Seidler. I was moved by the montage of the British people listening to the speech, all ears turned, all with a shared purpose. Other than that, there’s not much to say. It’s all in the trailer.

Full “King's Speech” review here.

Best Director:

Tom Hooper went unmentioned in my review. 

Full “King's Speech” review here.

Best Actor:

Firth does an amazing job making us care about this man born to privilege. We get a sense of how trapped he is by circumstances. He is, in fact, doubly trapped: by his role, which he can never escape, and by his speech impediment, which won’t let him carry out that role.

Full “King's Speech” review here.

Best Actress:

Oddly, I didn't mention Portman's performance in my review. Bad critic. I think I assumed everyone thought it amazing. I didn't know I'd be arguing with folks who found it one-note without finding, say, Jennifer Lawrence's performance in “Winter's Bone” one-note. But I did say this, which is the essence of the movie to me:

Has any recent movie gotten us into the head of its main character as well as this one? I kept having to take deep breaths after it was over. I’d been holding my breath for the last half hour along with Nina.

It helps to think of the white-swan part of Nina’s personality as less about innocence than control. Sure, Nina is sexually innocent, but one suspects it’s a direct result of her control and discipline. I mean, she doesn’t think about touching herself until Leroy suggests it? Until it might help get the part she covets? I’ll masturbate, but only to be good in the role. One way to get students to do their homework.

Full “Black Swan” review here.

Best Supporting Actor:

OK, so how does it differ [from “Rocky”]?

For one, “The Fighter” has the advantage of being mostly true.

It has the added advantage of Christian Bale’s over-the-top, look-at-me-I’m-not-Batman performance as Dicky Eklund, a one-time middleweight contender, trainer to his half-brother, Mickey Ward (Mark Wahlberg), and crack addict. ...

Wahlberg is fine, but he’s playing his gentle-voiced, blending-into-the-background leading man again. (See: “Planet of the Apes,” “The Truth About Charlie,” “The Italian Job.”) He’s a bit dull. In this way, the movie parallels its own story. Just as Dicky overshadows Mickey, so Bale’s performance overshadows Wahlberg’s. I’m not sure if this is ultimately a strength or a weakness, but I wish Wahlberg’s characters had as much in them as Wahlberg seems to.

Full “Fighter” review here.

Best Supporting Actress:

The HBO doc is, in fact, a turning point of the movie. It’s the moment Mickey comes to his senses about Dicky, Dicky half comes to his senses about himself, and the family’s eyes, at least momentarily, are opened. For a second I condemned this family, the awful mother, Alice (an incredible Melissa Leo), and those harpyish sisters, for needing HBO to show them how their son/brother lives. A second later I realized we all need such docs about our loved ones. My older brother is an alcoholic, about which he and I have no delusions, but I don’t know how he spends his days. The people closest to us are still unknowable.

Full “Fighter” review here.

Best Original Screenplay:

These early scenes—the clash between an uptight, stammering royal and an iconoclastic, unlettered therapist—are the best in the film. We get one good line after another from screenwriter David Seidler: My favorite exchange:

Bertie starts to light a cigarette from a silver case.
Lionel: Please don’t do that.
Bertie: I’m sorry?
Lionel: I believe sucking smoke into your lungs will kill you.
Bertie: My physicians say it relaxes the throat.
Lionel: They’re idiots.
Bertie: They’ve all been knighted.
Lionel: Makes it official then.

Full “King's Speech” review here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

There’s such a joy of intellect in Aaron Sorkin’s scripts that he’s almost unamerican. He makes brains and articulation seem like a superpower. He makes them seem cool.

His characters have so much to say that they don’t have the time to stop and say it; they have to keep moving. Sorkin was made to write the script for “The Social Network,” the story of the founding of Facebook, because it, too, is about supersmart, superarticulate people who are perhaps too smart and articulate for their own good. They speak before they should.

Full “Social Network” review here.

This was actually a fairly humbling exercise, for this reason if no other: In the future, I'll need to come up with superlatives besides “amazing” to describe great acting.

1:50 PM, PST: Patricia and I were going to be hosting an Oscar party tonight but poor Patricia came down with the crud and we thought better to keep it mellow and not infect anyone. So instead of a party it'll be just P and me and a cat named Jellybean (a rejected Lobo B-side, I believe).

But their loss is your gain. Or their gain is your loss. I.e., I'll be liveblogging the Oscars.

In the meantime my votes: Who I'd choose if I could ch-ch-choose. (That's a “Simpsons” reference, not a “King's Speech” reference.) This is want-to-win, not think-will-win. Off the top of my head. Or heart:

• Picture: “True Grit”
• Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
• Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
• Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
• Supporting Actor: John Hawkes, “Winter's Bone”
• Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
• Original Screenplay: Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
• Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
• Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
• Art Direction: “Inception”
• Cinematography: “True Grit”
• Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
• Documentary: “Restrepo”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• Film Editing: Andrew Weisblum, “Black Swan”
• Foreign Language Film: N/A. I've only seen “Biutiful” and was disappointed.
• Makeup: N/A. Haven't seen anyof these.
• Original Score: Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
• Original Song: Randy Newman, “We Belong Together”
• Sound Editing/Mixing: What do I know about these categories? Less than I know about the others.
• Visual Effects: “Inception”

A lot of these choices are razor-thin. “True Grit” barely over “The Social Network.” Eisenberg barely over Bridges. Aronofsky and Portman because they get you in the head of the character. It's Dostoevsky-type stuff. 

The main one I want to win apparently has no shot: “Restrepo.” Maybe someday people will know.

See you in a bit.

**

3:30 PM: Some Oscar linkage before the broadcast:

• John Lopez of Vanity Fair with a funny piece: “The Complete Procrastinators' Guide to Oscar voting.” Best Foriegn Language film made me laugh the hardest. In my head. It wasn't LOL.
• The great baseball writer Roger Angell talks about the Oscars. Big surprise, he does it well.
• If you're still filling out your ballot, Richard Brody of The New Yorker can help.
• Nathaniel Rogers over at Film Experience is already live-blogging the red carpet.

Talk of the town.

4:20 PM: Question: How come Nathaniel hasn't mentioned Mila Kunis' outfit yet? She's definitely living up to her Black Swan character in that thing. She's even handling Ryan Seacrest well. On the red carpet he asks, “How did you ge that role?” Doesn't it sound like he's asking: “How did YOU get that role?” I barely see the dude but every time it's nails-on-a-chalkboard.

I'm trying to make up for the lack of females here by being catty during the red carpet for Patricia:

“Where did Cate Blanchett get that dress? From Rachel on 'Glee'?”

I know. Needs work.

From Patricia: “What's up with all these strapless gowns? I'm not a fan of strapless gowns. For the last five years there's been nothing but strapless gowns.”

Patricia on Jennifer Lawrence: “She looks gorgeous. And that is a beatiful dress. And it has straps on it!”

**

4:55 PM: Does Sandra Bullock look like she's had some recent work done? She looks tight and unhappy. P not a fan of the red dress, either. Strapless.

E! broadcasters: “Let's talk about Celine Deon.” Patricia: “Why?”

And there's Jeff Bridges. He'd be back anyway to present best actress but finds himself nominated again. Is that like picking up a spare after a strike? Do you get more points in the final tally this way?

Hey, how many other Oscar livebloggers give you bowling metaphors during the red carpet?

**

5:05 PM: WTF? I thought the show started at 5:00 not 5:30. Oh, man. See you in a half hour.

**

5:53 PM: Odd opening, no? It's nice to see the lines of “Winter's Bone” side by side with the lines of such blockbusters as “Toy Story 3” and “Inception”; but Anne Hathaway (AH) and James Franco (JF) going through the year's best picture nominees seemed much ado about not much. (Though I loved her wink at Colin Firth's Duke of York.) And what's with the “Back to the Future” homage? Because AH and JF are the future of movies? I'm confused.

Having the moms and grandmoms stand up was cute. But then they begin with “Gone with the Wind”? “Let's celebrate the best of this year ... by looking back 72 years.”

First award: Art Direction. Patricia wanted “Inception.” Instead: “Alice in Wonderland.” 

Second award: Cinematography. I wanted “True Grit.” Instead: “Inception.” Wally Pfister: “Thank you... for all the respect you've shown to all the cinematographers.” Except, of course, Roger Deakins.

**

6:00 PM: OK, I'm fine with Kirk Douglas. But one should never milk it when one is holding the winning envelope. Just say the name. And one should get offstage when the winner (here: Melissa Leo) gets on it. Though.... Holy crap! She just swore on international television. Fun! She gives one of the oddest acceptance speeches but looks great.

Is anything going right here? Justin T. and Mila K. have nothing going on. Weak back-and-forth. iPhone apps jokes. Blech.

The best line so far is from the winner of the short animated film. “Our picture is about a creature no one pays attention to, so this award is wonderfully ironic.”

Animated feature? Pixar. “Toy Story 3.” I wonder if Vegas would even accept money on that bet.

**

6:22 PM: AH with a story about the first Academy Awards, which leads to an intro of ... Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem? I am SOOOOO confused.

Adapted Screenplay: Should be Sorkin. And it's Sorkin. Hugs for and from Aranofsky and Eisenberg. Let's see how articulate he is. Hey, shout-out to Paddy Chayefsky! Cool. “I wrote this movie but Darren Aronofsky made this movie.” Classy. “This movie is going to be a source of pride for me for the rest of my life.” Classy again.

Now original screenplay. Getting the writers out of the way early, apparently.

And it's David Seidler for “King's Speech.” Christopher Hitchens is throwing a fit somewhere but screw him. I'm happy for this guy ... who can't find the mic. “The writer's speech, this is terrifying. [pause] My father always said to me I would be a late bloomer.” Great line. Dude has something of Norman Mailer about him, doesn't he? He's been through battles.

Drag.

6:50 PM: BTW, family and friends: P is already back in the bedroom, coughing and achey. Poor thing. Just me out here alone in the living room. Well, “alone.” I've got a beer.

Another odd bit: AH singing a short, angry song about Hugh Jackman and JF showing up in drag. Plus a Charlie Sheen joke. Is it me or does this feel like the worst Oscar show ever?

Foreign language film. Hey, Denmark in the house!

Best supporting actor. Why Reese Witherspoon as presenter? Who won supporting actress last year? (Psst: Monique.) This category is stacked. First time I've applauded tonight: for John Hawkes. But I'm glad with Christian Bale winning—if only so the world can hear his British accent. “Bloody hell.” “Mate.” Overall, a weak acceptance speech for him. He blew it all at the Golden Globes.

Apologies. Ducked out. Had to get P advil and water and search for a thermometer. Has anyone seen it? She said she left it on the bedside table.

So I've come back to a tribute to... sound? Music? The sound of music? Yes. Best original score. I've heard Desplat will win for “TKS.” But “TSN” was quite good, too. As was “I.” And it goes to “TSN.”

Now it's sound, mixing, for .. “Inception.” Hey, nice looking sound engineer! Lora Hirschberg. Waving to the back row.

Now sound editing. Also “Inception.” That happens often, doesn't it? The sound awards going hand in hand? How often? Anyone know?

**

7:30 PM: Best line of the night so far: Catie Blanchett's “Gross” for the “Wolfman” clip. And she didn't even have to watch the entire movie. As expected, it wins best makeup. Expertise in the service of mediocrity.

Costume design? I've heard “Alice.” And it's ... “Alice.”

I like Jake G's message about seeing short films throughout the year because it might help you with your Oscar ballot.

But it's the “best live-action short” guy with the Sideshow Bob haircut, Luke Matheny, who steals the show. He wins for “God of Love” and says the following with genuine enthusiasm and meaning:

I should've gotten a haircut. [crowd laughs] Hey, everybody. Thanks to the Academy for this amazing honor, I need to salute my fellow nominees ... I invite the world to check out these films, they can be found on iTunes, you're gonna love 'em ... Finally [I'd like to thank] my mother, who did craft services for the film [crowd laughs], my dad, the state of Delaware, and last but not least, my brilliant composer and love of my life: Sasha Gordon, you're my dream come true.

Now documentary feature. Will we get to see Banksy? Will we hear about the global financial meltdown? We'll hear about the global financial meltdown. “Inside Job” wins.

Now a standing ovation for Billy Crystal. Is that a sign of how badly things are going tonight? Come back, Billy! Come back!

Visual effects. “Inception”? “Inception.”

Film editing. This is a big one. Could be a sign of best picture. And it's ... hey! “The Social Network”! Fingers crossed, babies.

Here's our tally thus far: “inception”: 4; “The Social Network”: 3; “The Fighter”: 2; “The King's Speech”: 1

**

7:50 PM: Original song. Who cares? I care! Randy Newman wins! Plus his speech is great. He and Luke Matheny in a competition for best accepatance speech thus far.

Final four. Could “The Social Network” pull it out? The tension is ... ehh. I guess it'd be nice but I'm not losing sleep.

But why bring out Hilary Swank simply to introduce Katherine Bigelow? Why waste the time? Hollywood, I dunna understand thee.

Best director: C'mon, Fincher! Fincher Fincher Fincher. And it's ... Tom Hooblah! As expected. So odd. BAFTA gave the award to the American, Fincher, for “The Social Network,” and we give it to the Brit, Hooper, for “The King's Speech.” Grass is greener, I guess. Except they're right this time. Our grass is greener.

Jeff Bridges suddenly seems so at home on the Oscar stage, doesn't he? He fills it.

My god, Natalie Portman looks loverly. And they chose a great clip for her. And they chose her.

Now Sandra Bullock with best actor. Do we like these personal intros? I guess we do. Sandra is particularly good with Jeff Bridges and Colin Firth. And it's Colin Firth. “I have a feelng my career has just peaked.” Classic Brit line. And then the threat of the dance moves. Post-speech commentary. Me: “Very British.” Patricia (back from the dead): “Sooooo cute.

So now it's all pretty much a foregone, in'it? The only hope was Fincher, with director, but Hooper got director, so ”TKS“ will get picture, too. As it does. Just after a great intro by Steven Spielberg, reminding everyone, particularly the ”losers,“ of the good company they keep:

In a moment, one of the 10 movies will join a list that includes ”On the Waterfront,“ ”Midnight Cowboy,“ ”The Godfather“ and ”The Deer Hunter.“ The other nine will join a list that includes ”The Grapes of Wrath,“ ”Citizen Kane,“ ”The Graduate“ and ”Raging Bull.“ Either way, congratulations, you're in very good company.

**

So (with apologies to Alvy Singer) here's my awards for the awards show:

• Best dressed (female): Mila Kunis
• Best dressed (female again: because who cares about best-dressed males?): Natalie Portman
• Best woman who stunned me with her beauty all over again: Halle Berry
• Best acceptance speech: Firth, Sorkin, and Newman were all good, but I give it to the kid: Luke Matheny
• Best intro: Steven Spielberg
• Biggest surprise: Probably Melissa Leo's f-bomb. There weren't many surprises tonight. Or laughs.

The show was an odd mix of youthful hosts, giving it a go but not being particularly funny, and constant looks back to ”Gone with the Wind“ and ”sound“ and ”Bob Hope“ for no reason I could fathom. Rather than focusing on this year, it kept darting back 70, 80 years, to apparently remind everyone of the glorious history of the movies. Yet when it had a chance to honor that glorious history of movies now, with Coppola and Godard, it did so off-stage. Almost every move was wrong: from the Hugh Jackass song, to the ”mashup" of faux musicals, to the iPhone app. What a waste. Bring back the comedians. Give us new producers. Something.

On the plus side, we found the thermometer.

In June 2009, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announced a break with more than 65 years of tradition by doubling the number of best picture nominees from five to 10. It's obvious why they did this. During the 2000s, the Academy was no longer nominating box office champs, and the ratings for the TV broadcasts were down, and there was fear that Oscar was on the verge of irrelevancy.

So what's happened since?

Last year, box office champs were indeed nominated, including “Avatar” (No. 1), “Up” (No. 5), and “The Blind Side” (No. 8), and the ratings for the TV broadcast did indeed go up: by 14 percent. Some may argue that's a lousy tradeoff: a 100 percent increase in best-picture nominees to get a 14 percent increase in TV ratings. But it's been done. Can't be undone.

But the move also seemed to allow the Academy to ignore box office altogether when it came time to actually giving out its awards. For more than 20 years, the best picture winner had the best or second-best box office among the nominees. (“American Beauty” was an exception: it had the third-best box office among 1999's nominees.) “The Hurt Locker” last year? Eighth among the 10 nominees. That's the same as fourth among five, and that hasn't happened since 1988, when “The Last Emperor” got the Oscar. More telling: “The Hurt Locker” ranked 116th for the year. The previous box-office low for a best-picture winner, as far as I can tell, was “Crash”: 49th in 2005.)

Most important, and despite the above calculations (fourth of five = eighth of 10), the doubling-down of BP noms has made it difficult to compare current nominees with past nominees to see where we stand. The Academy has disconnected itself from its past.

This year's best-picture nominees, for example, the ones that feel like best picture nominees (as opposed to, say, “The Blind Side”), are doing shockingly well at the box office. To wit:

• “True Grit.” Only two Coen brothers' movies have grossed over $50 million: “Burn After Reading” in 2008 ($60m) and “No Country for Old Men” in 2007 ($74m). Six of their 15 films didn't even gross $10 million. But “True Grit”? It's already shot past $150 million and could wind up the 11th or 12th highest-grossing film of the year.
• The Coens, though, are Steven Spielberg compared to Darren Aronofsky, whose films have grossed, chronologically, $5, $5, $12 and $29 million. But “Black Swan,” about ballet of all things, starring a girl of all things, is about to pass $100 million in U.S. grosses. (It's currently at $96 million.)
• “Black Swan” has done better than even “The Fighter,” which is about boys and boxing. But David O. Russell's film is still doing well: $82 million. As is “The King's Speech” ($84 million), which is coming on gangbusters. In fact, every movie by a best director nominee is in the top 50 in terms of annual box office.

Having every best picture nominee in the top 50 used to happen all the time, even as recently as the 1990s, when it happened four times (1990, 1991, 1992, 1997). But in the 2000s it happened only once, in 2000, and the trend was definitely in the opposite direction. In 2006, for example, every best picture nominee save one (“The Departed”), finished out of the top 50.

So it would be nice to compare this year with previous years to see where we stand. But we can't. We resort, as Nathaniel resorted here, to guessing games. We resort to sounding like lawyers drawing up a contract:

• IF the Academy were still nominating five best pictures nominees, and ... 
• IF those five nominees were the five nominees in the best-director category (“The Social Network,” “True Grit,” “The Fighter,” “Black Swan” and “The King's Speech”) ...
• THEN the five best picture nominees would all be in the top 50 in terms of annual box office for the first time since 2000.

The irony. The Academy doubled its best-picture nominees to 10 for fear of box-office irrelevance. But the change has frustrated our abiity to gauge its current box-office relevance.

Because “The King's Speech” received the most Oscar nominations yesterday, 12, there's a lot of talk that it's now the frontrunner to win best picture. Example of such talk here. Hair-pulling and general cursing from Jeff Wells here.

But nobody bothered to answer the question I want answered: How often does the film with the most nominations win best picture?

So here's the recent history:

2009: Tie between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” with nine nominations each. “The Hurt Locker” wins best picture.

2008: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” garners 13 noms. “Slumdog Millionaire” wins best picture.

2007: Tie between “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood,” with eight each. “No Country” wins.

2006: “Dreamgirls”: eight noms. But not one for best picture, which “The Departed” wins.

2005: “Brokeback Mountain” has the most noms: eight. We all remember how that turned out.

2004: 11 nominations for “The Aviator”; “Million Dollar Baby,” with seven noms, wins.

2003: All “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King”: 11 noms, 11 wins, includiing BP.

2002: “Chicago”: 13 noms. “Chicago,” surprise best picture winner.

2001: “Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring”: 11 noms. “A Beautiful Mind”: BP.

2000: “Gladiator,” 12 noms and the victory.

Result: Five times in the last 10 years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2007 and 2009), the movie with the most noms won best picture.

Meaning?

Meaning 50-50. Meaning less.

So the smoke has cleared from the Oscar nominations ... and everyone keeps blowing more smoke.

Google “Oscars” and “snubbed” and you get 259,000 results, including 708 under Google News. People love this shit. They're not just writing their outrage, they're tweeting their outrage, fans and stars, while pubs like Hollywood Reporter fan the flames. No. 2 on HR's list was Danny Boyle. “Though 127 Hours was nominated for best picture,” it wrote, “the director was not.” Yes. Same for five other directors. The categories are lopsided. So is singling out Boyle considered a snub of Lisa Cholodenko (“The Kids are Alright”), Debra Granik (“Winter's Bone”) and Lee Unkrich (“Toy Story 3”), whose pictures were all nominated? Should I fan those flames? HOLLYWOOD REPORTER SNUBS FEMALE, ANIMATED DIRECTORS ON “SNUBBED” LIST! 

Worse, almost no one does the hard work of pointing out who's just taking up space on the Academy's list. If you're saying somebody should be snubbed in, you have to tell us who should be snubbed out.

This was actually the subject of my first blog post, ever, way back on February 14, 2008:

if you’re going to say Joe Wright and Sean Penn both deserve director nods, tell us who didn’t deserve them. Julian Schnabel? Jason Reitman? Tony Gilroy? Yes, Angelina Jolie was great. So choose her over whom? Ellen Page? Cate Blanchett? And really? Christian Bale and/or Ryan Gosling over Tommy Lee Jones or Viggo Mortensen or Johnny Depp or George Clooney or Daniel Day-Lewis? If you’re adding, you gotta subtract. If you’re going to bitch about the Academy, you’ve gotta play within their parameters.

Things have only gotten worse. Everyone's got an opinion now, and the technology to broadcast it, but they think their opinion doesn't cost. It always costs. As a better writer once said: There's nothing free in this world but the grace of God.

I didn't get up early to watch the Oscar nominations read live at 5:30 PST as I've done in the past. Instead I got up at six, as usual, showered, grabbed coffee, and read them online via IMDb.com. Much more civilized.

My first thought? No surprises. I thought: Nathaniel over at Film Experience had all of these 10 best picture nominees yesterday. Maybe we should just go through Nathaniel instead of AMPAS.

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

Actor? Great group. No weak spots:

Javier Bardem for Biutiful

Jeff Bridges for True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network

Colin Firth for The King's Speech

James Franco for 127 Hours

Actress? Another strong group, but ...

Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman for Black Swan

Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

... no Hailee? She must be in supporting.

Amy Adams for The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech

Melissa Leo for The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit

Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

Yep. Too bad. She deserved to be in the lead category. But hardly a surprise. Business as usual, in fact.

Supporting actors? Did they ...

Christian Bale for The Fighter

John Hawkes for Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner for The Town

Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech

Yes, they did! They included John Hawkes! Alright! No Pierce Brosnan but that would've been a stretch. In fact, is the “Ghost Writer” anywhere? Nope. Not in one category. More proof, as if we need it, that America is not Europe. America is more puritanical. Even Hollywood is puritanical.

Director? Consider it the Class of 1999/2000. The Coens are old hands here.

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit

David Fincher for The Social Network

Tom Hooper for The King's Speech

David O. Russell for The Fighter

I'd replace Hooper or Russell with Nolan, but, again, this is hardly a surprise. (Read Nathaniel on the third-time snub of Nolan.)

In fact, where are the surprises?

Fourth from the end, in the “Best Documentary, Features” category.

Not only was “Waiting for Superman,” which won the PGA last week, not nominated, but neither was “The Tillman Story.” Both, I thought, would elbow out my favorite, “Restrepo,” which I think is one of the best movies of the year, documentary or feature, but “Restrepo” made the list.

Exit Through the Gift Shop: Banksy

GasLand: Josh Fox

Inside Job: Charles Ferguson

Restrepo: Tim Hetherington, Sebastian Junger

Waste Land: Lucy Walker

I would've put “A Film Unfinished” on that list as well, if it were eligible (not sure if it is), but it's still a strong list. I haven't seen the two “Lands,” “Gas” or “Waste” (isn't that the same?), but the others are all worthy. “Exit” is unique, but parts of it are a bit of a larf, maybe the whole thing, so I wouldn't vote for it. “Inside Job” is a traditional, talking-head doc, and important, but, as I've written, hardly told me anything I didn't know.

But “Restrepo”? With apologies to Banksy: That's art.

See you February 27th. Maybe we'll even be pleasantly surprised that evening.

ADDENDA: A good post on Oscar snubs from The Film Experience.

Meanwhile, the smartest comment about “Waiting for Superman” being snubbed is in the comments field at Hollywood Elsewhere from a reader named Martin Blank. He writes: “Waiting for Superman got snubbed because it's anti-union. And Hollywood is a union town.” As soon as you read that, you go “Of course.”

I'm beginning to enjoy the annual feature, “And the Nominees Should Be,” from the three movie critics at The New York Times, almost as much as all of the inevitable nitpicking and second-guessing when the nominees themselves are announced, this year, on Jan 25. It's fascinating to see where the three critics agree (if they do), and with whom I agree (if I do). 

One thing for sure: they agree more this year than last. Last year, for the 45 slots in the eight categories (best pic, director, the four actings and the two writings), they agreed on only four: “The Hurt Locker” for best picture, Katherine Bigelow for best director, Mark Boal for best screenplay, and Colin Firth for best actor.

(Aside: Three of those four wound up winning Oscars. Maybe if you can get the three Times critics to agree, you can get the industry to agree.)

So who do they agree on this year?

For Best Picture, with 10 nominees each, just “Carlos,” a five-hour-long French film, which came to Seattle for one show for one weekend, and which I'm still smarting about not seeing. Bring it back!

Director? Nada. A.O. Scott and Manohla Dargis both went Aronosky for “Black Swan,” and Dargis and Stephen Holden both went Olivier Assayas for “Carlos” and Fincher for “The Social Network,” but no threesies. Interestingly, Scott chose three female directors: Lisa Cholodenko for “The Kids Are Alight,” Sofia Coppola for “Somewhere,” and Debra Granlik for “Winter's Bone.” Dargis chose none.

Our threeway have their greatest agreement on Actor: They all went with Jesse Eisenberg for “The Social Network,” James Franco for “127 Hours,” and Edgar Ramirez for “Carlos.” Dargis, interestingly, went with three actors in French productions: Ramirez, Vincent Cassel in “Mesrine” (for which he won the Cesar two years ago) and Tahar Rahim in “Un Prophete” (for which he won the Cesar last year.) Don't know if I can fault her. Though I probably won't leave out Firth.

Actress? Just one agreement: Natalie Portman in “Black Swan.”

Supporting actor? Christian Bale in “The Fighter.” But two favorites whom I thought out of the running, Pierce Brosnan in “The Ghost Writer” and John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone,” wound up on both Scott's and Dargis's lists. Fingers crossed.

Nothing close to agreement on supporting actress. In fact, only two names wound up on more than one ballot: Greta Gerwig for “Greenberg” (Scott and Dargis) and Barbara Hershey for “Black Swan” (Dargis and Holden).

Screenplay? Only adapted had a threepeat: the Coens for “True Grit.”

As for which critic I most agreed with? Last year it was Dargis. This year it's ... Dargis. (You and me, Manohla!) I particularly like the sensibility behind her 10 films—four of which I haven't seen:

Black Swan

Boxing Gym

Carlos

The Ghost Writer

Inception

A Prophet

The Social Network

Sweetgrass

True Grit

Wild Grass

I hope to do my own “And The Nominees Should Be...” before Jan. 25.

It's mid-December and the top 10 lists are coming fast and furious ... and annoying. Critics struggle to post their annual top 10 lists earlier and earlier (to be first) even as studios release their most critically acclaimed movies later and later (to stay in the minds of Academy members as balloting progresses). Thus top 10s are full of movies that haven't been released in a theater near me (“The King's Speech”), have just been released (“The Fighter,” today), or which showed up for one showing in one weekend in October and are otherwise available, thus far, only in truncated versions (Olivier Assayas' “Carlos”). No wonder people pay less and less attention to these lists. The now is future.

That said, here are ten Top 10s. Extra points, kids, for including “Un Prophete” or “Restrepo.”

• Anthony Lane at the New Yorker leaves off “top” for “10 Movies I Liked.” Including: “Un Prophete” (no. 1), “The Father of My Children,” “Life During Wartime,” “Dogtooth,” “Toy Story 3,” “I Am Love,” “The Social Network,” “Mother,” “Winter's Bone” and “Sweetgrass.” (Not “Wild Grass”; “Sweetgrass.”)
• His colleague David Denby (do they talk? Pal around? Drink beers? Fake punch each other in the shoulder?) went with a “Best and Worst List.” He says the best movie of the year is “The Social Network,” then adds, “The Fighter,” “Company Men,” “The Ghost Writer,” “Toy Story 3,” “Winter's Bone” and “Please Give.” For docs he chooses three of my five: “Restrepo,” “Inside Job” and “Exit Through the Gift Shop.” For “big deal aesthetic disasters” he points to “Alice in Wonderland” (flat, repetitive), “Inception” (absurdly overelaborate and empty), and “Black Swan.”
• In another, bloodier vein there's Stephen King over at EW. His goes: 10) “Green Zone” 9) “Jackass 3D” 8) “Monsters” 7) “Splice” 6) “Kick-Ass” 5) “Takers” 4) “The Social Network” 3) “Inception” 2) “The Town” and 1) “Let Me In.” Cute.
• Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere? 10) “The King's Speech” 9) “Toy Story 3” 8) “Inception” 7) “Rabbit Hole” 6) “Let Me In” 5) “The Ghost Writer” 4) “Greenberg” 3) “The Fighter” 2) “Black Swan” and 1) “The Social Network.” (Wells gets extra points taken away for flailing against the L.A. Critics' decision to award Niel Arestrup's mob boss in “Un Prophete” their best supoorting actor award. Sure, the critics went for outside the box, but Wells, in his slam, comes across as decidedly provincial.)
• Richard Corliss at Time magazine gets a little mainstream: 10) “Four Lions” 9) “Waiting for 'Superman'” 8) “Green Zone” 7) “Wild Grass” (not “Sweet Grass”) 6) “Rabbit Hole” 5) “The Social Network” 4) “Life During Wartime” 3) “Never Let Me Go” 2) “Inside Job” and 1) “Toy Story 3.”
• AFI gets into the act and goes alphabetical with: “127 Hours,” “Black Swan,” “Inception,” “The Fighter,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “The Social Network,” “The Town,” “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit” and “Winter's Bone.”
• For the grand man, Roger Ebert, it goes: 10) “The Ghost Writer” 9) “The Kids Are All Right” 8) “The American” 7) “The Secret in their Eyes” 6) “Inception” 5) “Winter's Bone” 4) “I Am Love” 3) “Black Swan” 2) “The King's Speech” and 1) “The Social Network.”
• For the trend searcher, A.O. Scott: 10) “Exit Through the Gift Shop” 9) “Secret Sunshine” 8) “Last Train Home” 7) “127 Hours” 6) “Greenberg” 5) “The Kids Are All Right” 4) “Somewhere” 3) “Carlos” 2) “Toy Story 3” and 1) “Inside Job.”
• Tim Robey over at The Telegraph gives us: 10) “Inception” 9) “The Ghost Writer” 8) “How to Train Your Dragon” 7) “Dogtooth” 6) “The Kids Are All Right” 5) “I Am Love” 4) “I Am Love” 3) “Toy Story 3” 2) “Un Prophete” and 1) “The Social Network.”
• Finally, there's David Edelstein: 10) “Despicable Me” 9) “Marwencol” 8) “Exit Through the Gift Shop” 7) “Vincere” 6) “Mother and Child” 5) “Another Year” 4) “Toy Story 3” 3) “Please Give” 2) “Client 9” and 1) “Winter's Bone.”

So that's two “Un Prophete”s (Lane and Robey) and only one “Restrepo” (Denby). But four “The Kids Are All Right”s (AFI, Ebert, Scott and Robey) and two “Please Give”s (Denby and Edelstein)? The world is mad.

“The Social Network,” no surprise, wound up on eight of the 10, with only Scott and Edelstein abstaining. You don't get to Oscar without making a few top 10 lists.

“Toy Story 3”? Also eight of 10, with only King and Ebert kicking it to the curb.

“Winter's Bone” on five lists? Yep. Including Lane, Denby, AFI, and Ebert. Edelstein thought it the best movie of the year.

“Inception” also wound up on five lists (King, Wells, AFI, Ebert and Robey).

“The Ghost Writer,” being resurrected by European breezes, wound up on four lists (Denby, Wells, Ebert, Robey).

“Inside Job”? Three lists (Denby, Corliss, Scott).

Of the three late-season, buzz films, “King's Speech” made just two lists (Wells and Ebert), while both “Black Swan” (Wells, Ebert and AFI) and “The Fighter” wound up on three (Denby, Wells, AFI).

And no “A Film Unfinished” at all? Guess the Holocaust is so over.

My top 10 will come later. When I get a chance to see, you know, “The Fighter” and “The King's Speech” and “Black Swan.” For the five-hour “Carlos,” at this moment I can only dream.

Qui est Jeff Wells? Il est mort. MORT!

The Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association just announced its awards:

Best Film:
The Social Network

Best Director:
David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor:
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Acting Ensemble:
The Town

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

Best Original Screenplay:
Christopher Nolan (Inception)

Best Animated Feature:
Toy Story 3

Best Documentary:
Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful

Best Art Direction:
Luke Freeborn, Brad Ricker and Dean Wolcott (Inception)

Best Cinematography:
Wally Pfister (Inception)

Best Score:
Hans Zimmer (Inception)

In the comments field to his post about the awards, Jeff Wells says the D.C. association is more of a bellwether to Academy tastes than similar associations in L.A. and N.Y. Maybe, but it's still not much of a bellwether. Here are D.C.'s best picture winners over the last nine years:

• “Up in the Air”
• “Slumdog Millionaire” *
• “No Country for Old Men” *
• “United 93”
• “Munich”
• “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
• “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” *
• “Road to Perdition”

In terms of best picture, only three matches (*). It's still a wide-open field, kids.

Three things about The New York Times post-Oscars article: "Academy Smiles with Both Faces."

One:

Missing for many industry insiders was the organic sense of drama that came with past shows in which a popular film like “Titanic” or “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” built to a climax by picking up prize after prize — or when “The Aviator” built momentum through the minor awards in 2005, only to see the major Oscars slip away as "Crash" claimed the top prize. In those shows the awards actually were the entertainment.

This obviously confuses 2004 ("Aviator") with 2005 ("Crash"), or 2005 with 2006, depending on how you're scoring. It's since been corrected online but it went out in the print edition and it highlights what's wrong with the sentiment. There's rarely any kind of entertainment in the awards themselves. There may be surprises and shocks and disgust but not entertainment. What is this asking anyway? That the giving of awards be constructed as well as a play or movie? That's absurd.

Two:

By contrast, Sunday’s entertainment value was in many ways grafted on in a process that could seem vaguely dishonest at times. If “Up in the Air” was so worthy of monologue attention, why was it snubbed in all six categories in which it was nominated?

This is similarly absurd. First, I don't remember too much attention being paid to "Up in the Air." And even if, so what? The show is the show and the awards are the awards. It would be nice if the twain met, but, ahem, that twain left the station a long time ago. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Three:

Spotlighting the incongruence, “The Hurt Locker,” the big winner with six trophies including best picture, was also one of the least-watched films in its theatrical run to ever win the top prize. It sold about $14.7 million in tickets in North America and about $6.7 million overseas. On its opening weekend in two theaters in New York, its screenwriter, Mark Boal — now an Oscar winner — stood on street corners with his teenage nephew handing out free tickets to passersby with the idea that if they could stack the house, perhaps the theater owners would book it for another week.

The bigger story is less "The Hurt Locker"'s box office than the role Summit Entertainment played in not getting it out there. The evidence is right there in the above graf: They did such a poor job that the screenwriter and his nephew were forced to market for them! What was the Summit marketing team doing at the time—gearing up for the Sept. release of "Sorority Row"? "The Hurt Locker" is a movie that basically played in select cities. Its widest release was 535 theaters. Half of the best picture nominees were released into more than 3,000 theaters. "Up in the Air" got more than 2,000 theaters, "Precious" more than 1,000. Even "An Education" managed 700+. Only "A Serious Man," among the nominees, had a more limited release than the eventual best picture of the year. Someone besides me needs to start trashing Summit for this.

So what's it all mean?

For the first time since 1997 three films in the top 10 annual box office were nominated best picture, including the no. 1 movie of the year, and for the first time a movie that didn't even place in the top 100 annual box office won best picture. Don't know if the former explains the latter. I.e., we'll give you your blockbusters among the nominees, which allows us to choose small within the nominees. It'll be interesting to see if this becomes the new norm.

More likely it's indicative of what the studios think of quality movies these days. The heads-of-state at Summit Ent., I'm sure, are happy this morning, since their studio won twice as many Oscars as any other, but they should be shamefaced. They released nine pictures in 2009 and only one of them, "The Brothers Bloom," was released smaller, and more quietly, than the best picture of the year, "The Hurt Locker":

Apparently they thought twice as much as "Next Day Air," which was released into twice as many theaters as "The Hurt Locker." They thought four times as much as "Bandslam," and five times as much as "Sorority Row," even though none of these films wound up making as much as "The Hurt Locker." They thought that quality didn't matter and suffered financially as a result. Now, for the moment, quality matters. They have a feather in their cap but their cap is ridiculous. 

How much did Summit blow it with "Hurt Locker"? Jeff Wells had a good post last November indicating how clueless most people, most New Yorkers even, were about the movie. He writes:

It's one thing for these women not to have seen an Iraq War film, but to draw a total blank at a mention of the title? This obviously says nothing about the quality of the film, and almost everything about the lackluster marketing effort by Summit.

But in the end they got away with it. They let the Academy do their marketing for them and will now do well in the DVD rental market. If that's a market one wants to rule.

As for the show? Scattered thoughts from our crazy party.

• Guests started showing at 3 pm for the red carpet. We were watching E!, with Ryan Seacrest, whom I can barely stand to look at let alone listen to. I don't know how he doesn't die of embarassment from being Ryan Seacrest. The feelers he has out are so attuned to the slightest rise or fall of anyone within the show-business community and he responds accordingly: sucking up to the big boys, such as James Cameron, dismissing the lesser mortals, the mere artists. He almost condescends to them. I'll say this, though. I liked him when he was with Sandra Bullock. That's how good Sandra Bullock is. He should interview no one but Sandra Bullock:

Ryan: I don't where to start.
Sandra: Just stop.

• Everyone agreed Sandra looked beautiful. Everyone was aghast at Charlize Theron's dress—the roses over the boobs. Patricia: "That's not even a good color on her." I commented that J. Lo looked great. Jolie: "When doesn't she?"
• George Clooney is growing his hair out. Like me. Copycat.
• Vince on Miley Cyrus' posture: "Stand up, my dear. Stand up! My goodness." Jolie commented that Miley displays a lot of charisma on her show but having seen her on nothing but red carpets she feels like a Celebrity Apprentice waiting to happen.
• Innovation #1: The top 10 acting nominees introduced at the top of the show. Agin it.
• Innovation #2: A musical number by someone other than the host, or hosts, in this case by Neil Patrick Harris. It was a good-enough number whose theme fit the co-host format ("You can't do it alone"), and some of the lines were laugh-out loud ("I can't think of botox without you all..."), and the showgirls were, as Patricia said, showgirls, but it still felt light. Maybe it didn't celebrate THE MOVIES enough. The Academy is still looking for another Billy Crystal: someone who can be off-the-cuff funny, do musical numbers, and prick the sensibilities of Hollywood just so while celebrating what they do. No one's had that touch, or charm, since.
• Innovation #3: The co-hosts. Jeff: "I'm predicting this is not going to work." But it worked not badly. To Zac and Taylor: "This is you in five years." Loved the intro of Agnes Mishkin (i.e., Penelope Cruz) as much as I love Penelope Cruz. The most bizarre interlude was the funniest: the clip of Alec and Steve sleeping together. I roared because it was such a great parody of the way we sleep. Or maybe because it points out how unknowable we all are.
• Ryan Bingham looked good accepting his Oscar. T-Bone Burnett looked tall. He's the new Michael Jackson with his perpetual sunglasses.
• Line of the night? Robert Downey, Jr.: "...a collaboration of handsome gifted people and sickly little mole people."
• Interesting, unexpected tribute to John Hughes. Die young, get tribute.
• Line of the night? Ben Stiller: "It's amazing how far technology has come."
• Speech of the night? Geoffrey Fletcher, in a fairly big upset, winning best adapated screenplay for "Precious," and he feels the weight of the moment. "This is for everyone who works on a dream every day."
• Line of the night? Steve Martin a second later: "I wrote that speech for him."
• P.S. But what's up with showing every black person in the crowd for Fletcher's win? Morgan Freeman? He wasn't involved in "Precious." I know it was unprecedented, but still.
• OK, so what asshole, who won best supporting actor last year, is so self-involved he couldn't come back this year to present the award for best supporting actress? So they had to get Robin Williams to do it? Tim: "Wasn't it Heath Ledger?" Oops.
• We boo the lack of clips for cinematography. If there should be clips for any category, it's cinematography.
• Line of the night? From "Up"'s Michael Giacchino: "If you want to be creative, go out there and do it. It's not a waste of time." Nice.
  
• A shot of George Clooney, bobbing his head goofily to the soundtrack for "Up in the Air." Rico: "You know, I love that guy."
• Worst cutaway of the night: from Ric O'Barry and his mild proselytizing. C'mon, kids, it's for dolphins! And this is the guy who trained Flipper! By the way, Fisher Stevens may have produced "The Cove" but you get the feeling he didn't do a thousandth of the work as Louie Psihoyos. Yet he took all the credit. I agree with Jeff Wells here. Effin' actors.
• Innovation #4: Getting people who know the best actor/actress nominee to talk about their career, to talk about working with them, etc. An improvement over last year's innovation, in which it was former winners talking to current nominees. Makes it more personal. It worked as soon as Michelle Pfeiffer started talking about Jeff Bridges, how he was husband, father and actor on the set of "The Fabulous Baker Boys," and got him to tear up. BTW: When I die, I want Oprah to deliver the eulogy.
• Line of the night? Tim Robbins quoting Morgan Freeman on the set of "Shawshank": "You know what friendship is? Friendship is getting the other person a cup of coffee. Can you do that for me... Ted?"
• In the middle of Jeff Bridges' speech, Mr. B: "He's so high."
• At the end of Jeff Bridges' speech: Tim: "The Dude abides." Vinnie: "I don't know about you but I take comfort in that."
• "Meryl. What can I say?" Stanley Tucci gives Meryl great intro.
• Speech of the night? Sandra Bullock. Here. "We are all deserving of love." Very, very nice.
• How much is the Academy giving away these days? Coppola and Spielberg awarding best director to Scorsese? Barbra awarding best director to K. Bigelow? But Barbra couldn't fade into the background, could she? She held the answer, made us wait, said "The time has come." Could've done without that. 
• Worst music of the evening: Kathyrn Bigelow becomes the first woman to win Best Director and the orchestra serenades her offstage with "I am Woman." Tacky.
• Best pic. "The Hurt Locker." So even with the innovation of 10 nominees and a new way of scoring, the insiders still knew. There are no surprises.

Me, I won our Oscar pool with 16 of 21 correct. (We don't do short subjects.) Then clean-up, sobering up, the icky feeling of the Barbara Walters special. Bed, bed, bed.

New day! New year! Pierce Brosnan for best supporting actor!

The Dude, more than abiding.

It's a shame A.O. Scott can't remember back to December. In his day-of-the-Oscars piece he writes:

By the time it opened in December, “Avatar” was the movie that everyone in the world had to see, as soon as possible, and it held on to that status week after week.

The second part is truer than any movie since "Titanic." The first part? I remember otherwise. It opened at no. 1, certainly, with $77 million for the weekend, which ain't bad, but it's hardly the movie that everyone in the world had to see as soon as possible. Here are "Avatar"'s various rankings. All Time Domestic: #1. All Time Worldwide: #1. Yearly 2009: #1. Yearly Opening Weekends 2009: #5. Five? Yep. The movie that has now grossed more than twice as much worldwide than any movie besides "Titanic" opened poorer than the following 2009 films: "New Moon," "Transformers 2," "Wolverine" and "Harry Potter." I know everyone didn't need to see it opening weekend because I was there and it was pretty easy to get a seat. What distinguished "Avatar" is what distinguished ol' man river: it just kept rolling along. 

Then there's this:

The 10-film best picture list, while it was created in part to ensure the presence of hits, also makes room for more smaller-scale, artistically ambitious movies than before. And one of these, “The Hurt Locker,” has emerged as the main rival to “Avatar” — and even, in the view of some handicappers, the favorite.

I know Scott isn't implying this but it sounds like he's implying that "The Hurt Locker" wouldn't have been nominated if the best picture list hadn't been expanded (idiotically) to 10 pictures, but that's nonsense. In fact I'm not sure what the point of Scott's Oscar piece is. He talks up the big and small, the blockbuster and the long tail, and adds, "The money to produce and publicize the kind of middle-size movie that has dominated the Oscar slates in recent years is drying up." Which middle-size movie in what recent years? "The Departed"? "Million Dollar Baby"? "Juno"? Are these middle-sized movies? If anything, recent years have been dominated by the small and indie, haven't they? I guess I wouldn't appreciated greater clarification. If I were Scott's editor, I would've asked for it.

But the article does bring up an interesting point: Which five nominated movies wouldn't have been nominated if the best picture list hadn't been expanded (idiotically) to 10 pictures? This is what we've got (ranked by U.S. box office):

"Avatar"

"Up"

"The Blind Side"

"Inglourious Bastards"

"District 9"

"Up in the Air"

"Precious"

"The Hurt Locker"

"An Education"

"A Serious Man"

So which wouldn't the Academy have chosen? Starting up from 10, let's eliminate "A Serious Man," which not enough people took seriously (or saw), as well as "An Education," which is an impeccably done coming-of-age story but didn't make the impact, either critically or commercially, it needed to get Academy notice. "District 9"? The only sci-fi movies that get nom'ed are no. 1 at the box office for the year; this thing was no. 27. Pass. "Up," too. It's my favorite of 2009 but it's an animated feature, animated features rarely get nom'ed, and it has its own category now anyway. And if there's a God in heaven and sense in the Academy (not sure which is the greater likelihood), "Blind Side," an awfully mediocre movie, wouldn't have been part of the discussion.